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Panthers at Maple Leafs
NHL

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
4
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
FinalTV ESPN, CBC·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Florida Panthers 5-4. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Uvis Balinskis's goal at 4:30 of the third period, which took the Panthers' chances from 7% to 21%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.3 to 2.6; shots on goal were FLA 29, TOR 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 25 of 30 (.833), 2.2 goals below expected; Anthony Stolarz stopped 8 of 9 (.889). Three stars: 1. William Nylander (2 G, 1 A), 2. Matthew Knies (1 G, 1 A), 3. Chris Tanev (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    W. Nylander2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Knies1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    C. Tanev1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA1409316429
TORTOR31315112530

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(4)
    M. Pacioretty (2), J. McCabe (2)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    0:33
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(5)
    O. Ekman-Larsson (1), M. Pacioretty (3)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    12:51
  3. FLA
    S. Jones(2)PPG
    M. Tkachuk (3), C. Verhaeghe (2)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-2
    16:57
  4. TOR
    M. Rielly(3)
    W. Nylander (7)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    17:16

2nd period

  1. TOR
    C. Tanev(1)
    J. McCabe (3), M. Knies (1)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-4
    7:50

3rd period

  1. FLA
    E. Luostarinen(2)
    A. Lundell (4), B. Marchand (5)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +6 ptsVideo
    2-4
    1:39
  2. FLA
    U. Balinskis(1)
    N. Schmidt (1), B. Marchand (6)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-4
    4:30
  3. TOR
    M. Knies(4)
    M. Marner (8), C. Tanev (2)
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +11 ptsVideo
    3-5
    14:00
  4. FLA
    S. Bennett(4)
    C. Verhaeghe (3)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +4 ptsVideo
    4-5
    18:05

Penalties

FLA 10 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 6:38TORMax Domi · Cross checkingdrawn by Brad Marchand2 min
  • 14:07FLANiko Mikkola · Holdingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 15:20TORserved by Pontus Holmberg · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

  • 1:46FLAUvis Balinskis · Hookingdrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min
  • 5:18TORPontus Holmberg · Interferencedrawn by Seth Jones2 min
  • 10:14FLAAleksander Barkov · Holding the stickdrawn by John Tavares2 min

3rd

  • 5:02FLASam Bennett · Hookingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 10:08FLANiko Mikkola · Roughingdrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalFLA goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Uvis Balinskis, 3rd 4:30 — FLA 7% → 21%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.50M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.24W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.24W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.18J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.13M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.13A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.13M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.11J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.10M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.10M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.10M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.10P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.08W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.08A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.07J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07M. Knies · Goal · xG 0.07M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rielly · Goal · xG 0.06M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.06B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.05W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.05M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.04B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.04B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.04M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.03A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.02J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.02B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.02S. Benoit · Missed · xG 0.02S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.02M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.01C. Tanev · Goal · xG 0.01A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.01A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.01O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.01B. Carlo · Missed · xG 0.00M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR5 G · 3.3 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsTOR
2.64 G
All situations
5 G3.3
2.03 G
Even strength
5 G1.8
0.51 G
Power play
0 G1.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA45%55%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.51 – 2.82

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsTOR
29
Shots on goal
30
40%
Faceoffs
60%
1/3
Power play
0/5
10
Penalty minutes
6
51
Hits
24
11
Blocked shots
24
13
Giveaways
17
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3S. JonesD101-110.08210—27:39
42G. ForslingD000-230.05200—23:00
16A. BarkovC000-140.336125022:09
13S. ReinhartC000-220.260103322:07
7D. KulikovD000-210.08510—19:49
19M. TkachukL011+100.00110—19:06
23C. VerhaegheC022-150.25700018:49
9S. BennettC101070.665021118:32
27E. LuostarinenC101+120.08320015:38
88N. SchmidtD011000.04210—15:35
63B. MarchandL022+110.20000—15:23
77N. MikkolaD000-100.00204—15:07
17E. RodriguesC000-110.075005015:02
15A. LundellC011+100.122006514:59
26U. BalinskisD101+110.22222—11:16
8N. SturmC000-100.01110009:00
70J. BoqvistC000-110.10200004:37
10A. GreerL000-100.03400—04:30
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
72S. Bobrovsky(L)30255.8332.84-2.1657:42

Series

FLA leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).