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Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues

FinalTV TNT, CBC·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the St. Louis Blues 3-2. The Blues scored first; the Avalanche answered. The Blues led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Darren Helm's goal at 19:54 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 48% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.3 to 1.7; shots on goal were COL 39, STL 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Darcy Kuemper stopped 18 of 20 (.900); Ville Husso stopped 36 of 39 (.923). Three stars: 1. Darren Helm (1 G), 2. J.T. Compher (2 G), 3. Justin Faulk (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    D. Helm1 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    J. Compher2 G
  3. ★★★
    STL
    J. Faulk1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL013113213339
STLSTL171706220

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    wristxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    19:00

2nd period

  1. COL
    wristxG 0.23win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    5:19
  2. STL
    wristxG 0.13win prob +18 pts
    1-2
    9:34

3rd period

  1. COL
    wristxG 0.05win prob +30 pts
    2-2
    10:18
  2. COL
    slapxG 0.02win prob +52 pts
    3-2
    19:54

Penalties

COL 4 PIM·STL 4 PIM

1st

  • 14:34COLJosh Manson · Interferencedrawn by Jordan Kyrou2 min

2nd

  • 11:18STLRobert Thomas · Hookingdrawn by Josh Manson2 min
  • 15:55COLNathan MacKinnon · Trippingdrawn by Jordan Kyrou2 min

3rd

  • 8:19STLColton Parayko · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalCOL goalFinal: STL 0%

Biggest swing: Darren Helm, 3rd 19:54 — COL 48% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.17J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.15A. Toropchenko · On goal · xG 0.14J. Kyrou · Goal · xG 0.13P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.09N. Walker · Missed · xG 0.08N. Walker · On goal · xG 0.07J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.06A. Toropchenko · Missed · xG 0.06J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.06D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.06A. Toropchenko · Missed · xG 0.06B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.06B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.06D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.05R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.05V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.04J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.04J. Faulk · Goal · xG 0.04J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.04R. Bortuzzo · On goal · xG 0.04R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.03A. Toropchenko · Missed · xG 0.03J. Faulk · Missed · xG 0.02J. Faulk · Missed · xG 0.02M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.01V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.01B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.01T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.01J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.00
STL2 G · 1.7 xG · 30 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsSTL
3.33 G
All situations
2 G1.7
2.92 G
Even strength
2 G1.6
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL77%23%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.27 – 1.67

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsSTL
39
Shots on goal
20
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
24
Hits
32
7
Blocked shots
14
6
Giveaways
6
8
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD000+140.15020—28:02
7D. ToewsD011+100.00100—26:33
96M. RantanenR000030.10000—20:53
13V. NichushkinR000010.21310—20:03
91N. KadriC000070.530004719:58
92G. LandeskogL000+161.030007119:56
4B. ByramD011-130.17010—19:25
29N. MacKinnonC000030.212023319:10
6E. JohnsonD011020.08610—18:50
62A. LehkonenL000-120.23200—15:06
42J. MansonD011030.17212—14:30
25L. O'ConnorR011+100.01000—12:00
43D. HelmC101+120.032007111:33
95A. BurakovskyL011000.00000—10:56
11A. CoglianoC000000.05200010:45
16N. Aube-KubelR000-100.00100—09:52
3J. JohnsonD000-100.00310—09:19
37J. CompherL202-130.340005009:09
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35D. Kuemper(W)20182.9001.68-0.3260:00

Series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).