Blues at Avalanche 4-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

St. Louis Blues

▸4

Colorado Avalanche

FinalTV TNT, CBC·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-1. The Blues scored first and never trailed. The Blues led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jordan Kyrou's goal at 5:45 of the second period, which took the Blues' chances from 47% to 64%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 4.6 to 1.4; shots on goal were STL 32, COL 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 30 of 31 (.968); Darcy Kuemper stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. David Perron (2 G), 2. Jordan Binnington (30 saves, .968), 3. Gabriel Landeskog (1 G).

Three stars

★
D. Perron2 G
★★
J. Binnington30 saves, .968
★★★
G. Landeskog1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	014	210	28	432
COL	08	011	112	131

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

J. Kyrou(5)
R. O'Reilly (4), P. Buchnevich (5)
wristxG 0.05win prob +17 pts
1-0
5:45
D. Perron(6)PPG
P. Buchnevich (6), V. Tarasenko (2)
slapxG 0.20win prob +16 pts
2-0
19:26

3rd period

G. Landeskog(4)PPG
M. Rantanen (7), N. MacKinnon (3)
wristxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
2-1
1:49
D. Perron(7)
Unassisted
wristxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
3-1
10:31
B. Saad(2)EN
B. Schenn (5), J. Faulk (6)
wristxG 0.96
4-1
18:10

Penalties

4 PIM·

4 PIM

2nd

7:28Brayden Schenn · Hookingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min
17:39Devon Toews · Trippingdrawn by Scott Perunovich2 min
18:36Valeri Nichushkin · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Jordan Binnington2 min

3rd

1:24David Perron · Hookingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: COL

Biggest swing: Jordan Kyrou, 2nd 5:45 — STL 47% → 64%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 1.4 xG · 42 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 4.6 xG · 41 att COL

1 G · 1.4 xG · 42 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

4.63 G
All situations: 1 G1.4; 1.92 G
Even strength: 0 G0.9; 0.41 G
Power play: 1 G0.4; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

68%32%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.34 – 1.44

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

32
Shots on goal: 31; 61%
Faceoffs: 39%; 1/2
Power play: 1/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 4; 38
Hits: 45; 18
Blocked shots: 5; 8
Giveaways: 7; 7
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

St. Louis Blues skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
55C. ParaykoD	0	0	0	+1	5	0.09	2	1	0	—	25:00
72J. FaulkD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.04	6	1	0	—	24:05
4N. LeddyD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.02	0	0	0	—	22:43
89P. BuchnevichL	0	2	2	+2	0	0.07	1	1	0	—	20:49
57D. PerronL	2	0	2	+2	5	1.07	1	0	2	—	20:06
90R. O'ReillyC	0	1	1	+2	4	0.38	2	2	0	62	19:46
18R. ThomasC	0	0	0	0	0	0.05	3	1	0	54	18:14
20B. SaadL	1	0	1	+1	3	1.88	0	0	0	100	16:51
10B. SchennC	0	1	1	+1	3	0.22	3	1	2	67	16:42
91V. TarasenkoR	0	1	1	0	2	0.21	4	1	0	—	16:35
25J. KyrouR	1	0	1	+1	3	0.26	0	0	0	—	15:53
77N. MikkolaD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	5	3	0	—	15:00
49I. BarbashevL	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	4	0	0	100	14:11
43C. RosenD	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	1	0	—	12:52
65A. ToropchenkoR	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	2	2	0	—	11:05
21T. BozakC	0	0	0	0	1	0.16	3	1	0	43	10:14
41R. BortuzzoD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	3	0	—	10:11
48S. PerunovichD	0	0	0	0	0	0.06	0	0	0	—	07:18

St. Louis Blues goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
50J. Binnington(W)	31	30	1	.968	1.44	+0.44	60:00

Series

COL leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score