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Avalanche at Blues
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
St. Louis Blues
2
FinalTV TNT, CBC·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the St. Louis Blues 5-2. The Blues scored first; the Avalanche answered. The Avalanche led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nazem Kadri's goal at 13:38 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 48% to 68%. Expected goals were close — COL 2.7, STL 2.8; shots on goal were COL 27, STL 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Darcy Kuemper stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Ville Husso stopped 19 of 23 (.826), 2.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Darcy Kuemper (29 saves, .935), 2. Ryan O'Reilly (1 G, 1 A), 3. Colton Parayko (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    D. Kuemper29 saves, .935
  2. ★★
    STL
    R. O'Reilly1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    STL
    C. Parayko1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL1102928527
STLSTL11311008231

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    C. Parayko(2)
    R. O'Reilly (5)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    3:55
  2. COL
    L. O'Connor(1)
    J. Manson (3), D. Helm (1)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    10:57

2nd period

  1. COL
    N. Kadri(2)
    C. Makar (8), M. Rantanen (8)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +19 pts
    2-1
    13:38
  2. COL
    A. Lehkonen(3)
    N. Kadri (4)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +18 pts
    3-1
    17:15
  3. STL
    R. O'Reilly(7)
    N. Leddy (1), P. Buchnevich (7)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    19:30

3rd period

  1. COL
    G. Landeskog(5)
    N. MacKinnon (4), M. Rantanen (9)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +7 pts
    4-2
    17:52
  2. COL
    A. Lehkonen(4)EN
    V. Nichushkin (2)
    backhandxG 0.35
    5-2
    19:02

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·STL 4 PIM

1st

  • 8:48COLJosh Manson · Roughingdrawn by Scott Perunovich2 min

2nd

  • 9:55COLDarren Helm · Holdingdrawn by Vladimir Tarasenko2 min
  • 11:32STLPavel Buchnevich · Interferencedrawn by Josh Manson2 min
  • 13:44STLJordan Kyrou · Holding the stickdrawn by Nicolas Aube-Kubel2 min
  • 13:44COLNicolas Aube-Kubel · Cross checkingdrawn by Jordan Kyrou2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalCOL goalFinal: STL 0%

Biggest swing: Nazem Kadri, 2nd 13:38 — COL 48% → 68%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.19R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.18R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.14R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.12I. Barbashev · On goal · xG 0.12B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.11D. Perron · Missed · xG 0.11V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.11R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.11R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.10V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.10J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.09P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.08J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.08B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.08V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.08R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.08R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.08J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.07V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.06J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.06V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.06R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.05J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.05V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.05V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.05D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.05D. Perron · Missed · xG 0.05C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.04V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.04J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.03C. Parayko · Goal · xG 0.03J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.03T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.03N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.02B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.02C. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.01N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.01R. Bortuzzo · Missed · xG 0.01J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.00P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.00
STL2 G · 2.8 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsSTL
2.74 G
All situations
2 G2.8
2.04 G
Even strength
2 G2.3
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL44%56%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.40 – 2.74

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsSTL
27
Shots on goal
31
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/1
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
4
25
Hits
37
13
Blocked shots
10
4
Giveaways
7
5
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
7D. ToewsD000030.06100—30:56
8C. MakarD011+210.43130—28:49
29N. MacKinnonC011+220.070002921:47
42J. MansonD011+100.00312—20:42
96M. RantanenR022030.22110—20:35
13V. NichushkinR011010.02100—20:07
92G. LandeskogL101+230.423103319:41
6E. JohnsonD000+100.04220—19:27
4B. ByramD000+230.24020—17:45
91N. KadriC112+220.251005017:10
62A. LehkonenL202+250.61220—14:33
37J. CompherL000010.220106714:01
16N. Aube-KubelR000010.02302—11:50
43D. HelmC011000.005025010:30
95A. BurakovskyL000010.01100—09:35
11A. CoglianoC000000.0010010007:54
25L. O'ConnorR101+110.14000—07:42
49S. GirardD000000.00000—00:56
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35D. Kuemper(W)31292.9352.77+0.7760:00

Series

COL leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).