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Stars at Predators
NHL

Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
2
Nashville Predators
▸3
Final/OTTV FS-SW, FS-TN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Dallas Stars 3-2 in overtime, Ryan Johansen scoring at 0:43. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Johansen's goal at 0:43 of overtime, which took the Predators' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals were close — DAL 2.0, NSH 2.1; shots on goal were DAL 29, NSH 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Anton Khudobin stopped 21 of 24 (.875), 0.9 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 27 of 29 (.931). Three stars: 1. Ryan Johansen (1 G, 1 A), 2. Viktor Arvidsson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Craig Smith (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. Johansen1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    V. Arvidsson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    C. Smith1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
DALDAL080921200229
NSHNSH19061811324

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    C. Smith(16)
    K. Fiala (21), Y. Weber (6)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    17:48

3rd period

  1. DAL
    M. Heiskanen(10)
    T. Seguin (29), R. Polak (6)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +26 pts
    1-1
    4:05
  2. NSH
    V. Arvidsson(22)
    F. Forsberg (15), R. Johansen (37)
    tip-inxG 0.18win prob +30 pts
    1-2
    8:41
  3. DAL
    T. Fedun(3)
    A. Cogliano (10), J. Dickinson (8)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +30 pts
    2-2
    9:46

Overtime

  1. NSH
    R. Johansen(10)
    V. Arvidsson (8), R. Josi (32)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +49 pts
    2-3
    0:43

Penalties

DAL 4 PIM·NSH 6 PIM

1st

  • 5:29NSHP.K. Subban · Holdingdrawn by Jamie Benn2 min
  • 6:45DALserved by B. Ritchie · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

  • 8:36DALRoman Polak · Interferencedrawn by Dan Hamhuis2 min
  • 8:36NSHDan Hamhuis · Roughingdrawn by Roman Polak2 min
  • 16:24NSHRyan Hartman · Trippingdrawn by Esa Lindell2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalDAL goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Ryan Johansen, OT 0:43 — NSH 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.20V. Arvidsson · Goal · xG 0.18C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.15R. Johansen · Goal · xG 0.14K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.14R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.13F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.12R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.10C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.07C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.06C. Smith · Goal · xG 0.06C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.05K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.05F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.05C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.04P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.04C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.04C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.03K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.03P. Subban · Missed · xG 0.03P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.02P. Subban · Missed · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.01N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.01P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.00Y. Weber · Missed · xG 0.00R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.00R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH3 G · 2.1 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsNSH
2.02 G
All situations
3 G2.1
1.92 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL49%51%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.99 – 2.05

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsNSH
29
Shots on goal
24
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/2
Power play
0/1
4
Penalty minutes
6
13
Hits
15
9
Blocked shots
7
6
Giveaways
7
7
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3J. KlingbergD000-130.09010—24:48
4M. HeiskanenD101-130.05000—24:02
23E. LindellD000-100.08000—21:51
47A. RadulovR000+130.28000—20:49
91T. SeguinC011+130.102004219:46
45R. PolakD011000.00212—19:46
14J. BennL000020.261003318:39
16J. DickinsonC011020.072001716:08
15B. ComeauL000-220.31100—15:00
42T. FedunD101+140.07010—14:47
17A. CoglianoC011020.27000014:15
13M. JanmarkC000-100.05010014:13
12R. FaksaC000-200.090106713:44
90J. SpezzaC000+100.010106012:55
2J. OleksiakD000+110.02110—12:54
24R. HintzC000010.040107512:41
34D. GurianovR000010.14110—11:12
25B. RitchieR000020.05300—10:39
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35A. Khudobin(O)24213.8752.05-0.9560:43

Season series

NSH leads 3-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).