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Predators at Stars
NHL

Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸5
Dallas Stars
4
Final/OTTV FS-SW, FS-TN·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Dallas Stars 5-4 in overtime, Mattias Ekholm scoring at 2:27. The Predators came back from two goals down. The Stars led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mattias Ekholm's goal at 2:27 of overtime, which took the Predators' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 2.4 to 2.1; shots on goal were NSH 34, DAL 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 1.9 goals below expected; Ben Bishop stopped 29 of 34 (.853), 2.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mattias Ekholm (1 G), 2. Ryan Johansen (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jason Spezza (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    M. Ekholm1 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    R. Johansen1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Spezza1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
NSHNSH0141831012534
DALDAL14281903424

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    T. Pitlick(3)
    R. Faksa (3)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    13:05

2nd period

  1. NSH
    R. Hartman(5)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    0:12
  2. DAL
    T. Seguin(5)
    J. Honka (2), V. Nichushkin (4)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    6:47
  3. DAL
    J. Spezza(4)PPG
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.08win prob +14 pts
    1-3
    14:32

3rd period

  1. NSH
    R. Johansen(3)
    R. Josi (6), V. Arvidsson (5)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    0:17
  2. NSH
    Y. Weber(2)
    K. Fiala (6), A. Bitetto (2)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +24 pts
    3-3
    1:54
  3. DAL
    D. Gurianov(1)
    B. Gleason (1), J. Benn (6)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +30 pts
    3-4
    8:58
  4. NSH
    R. Josi(5)PPG
    R. Johansen (14), F. Forsberg (5)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +42 pts
    4-4
    19:17

Overtime

  1. NSH
    M. Ekholm(3)
    K. Turris (10), P. Subban (10)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +51 pts
    5-4
    2:27

Penalties

NSH 6 PIM·DAL 10 PIM

1st

  • 9:22DALMattias Janmark · Delaying game2 min
  • 13:11DALJason Dickinson · Slashingdrawn by Frederick Gaudreau2 min

2nd

  • 3:34DALJamie Benn · Holdingdrawn by Ryan Ellis2 min
  • 13:05NSHP.K. Subban · Trippingdrawn by Tyler Pitlick2 min

3rd

  • 11:36DALMiro Heiskanen · Delaying game2 min
  • 11:52NSHFilip Forsberg · Interferencedrawn by Blake Comeau2 min
  • 18:21DALEsa Lindell · Slashingdrawn by Viktor Arvidsson2 min
  • 19:46NSHMattias Ekholm · Cross checkingdrawn by Jason Spezza2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalNSH goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Mattias Ekholm, OT 2:27 — NSH 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.14T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.13T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.13J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.12B. Comeau · On goal · xG 0.11T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.11J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.10J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.09J. Honka · On goal · xG 0.09T. Pitlick · Goal · xG 0.08B. Gleason · On goal · xG 0.08J. Spezza · Goal · xG 0.08T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.07D. Heatherington · On goal · xG 0.07J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.07M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.06D. Gurianov · Goal · xG 0.06T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.05D. Gurianov · Missed · xG 0.05T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.04T. Seguin · Goal · xG 0.04D. Heatherington · On goal · xG 0.04D. Shore · On goal · xG 0.04T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.03M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.03E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.03J. Honka · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.01J. Hanley · On goal · xG 0.01T. Pitlick · On goal · xG 0.01
DAL4 G · 2.1 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsDAL
2.45 G
All situations
4 G2.1
1.74 G
Even strength
3 G1.2
0.71 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH57%43%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.41 – 2.06

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsDAL
34
Shots on goal
24
43%
Faceoffs
57%
1/5
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
10
13
Hits
19
9
Blocked shots
11
10
Giveaways
9
6
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. EllisD000010.08010—27:55
59R. JosiD112030.14410—27:16
76P. SubbanD011020.03012—25:43
14M. EkholmD101010.07212—23:12
92R. JohansenC112+110.090004521:03
10C. SissonsC000+130.360104220:18
33V. ArvidssonL011020.17000—19:00
9F. ForsbergL011020.43002—18:32
8K. TurrisC011040.141005818:04
22K. FialaL011020.10000—17:09
15C. SmithC000030.17100015:18
13N. BoninoC000+120.090004314:40
38R. HartmanR101+130.07000—14:31
7Y. WeberD101+110.03200—10:16
20M. SalomakiR000010.05210—09:16
2A. BitettoD011+100.01110—08:17
23R. GrimaldiR000-110.11010—07:46
89F. GaudreauC000-120.300102907:32
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(W)24204.8332.06-1.9461:00

Season series

NSH leads 3-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).