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Predators at Stars
NHL

Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸5
Dallas Stars
3
FinalTV ESPN+, FS-SW·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Dallas Stars 5-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Roman Josi's goal at 7:35 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 48% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 4.7 to 3.6; shots on goal were NSH 47, DAL 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 36 of 39 (.923), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Anton Khudobin stopped 42 of 46 (.913). Three stars: 1. Roman Josi (2 G, 1 A), 2. Esa Lindell (1 G, 1 A), 3. Ryan Ellis (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. Josi2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DAL
    E. Lindell1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    R. Ellis3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH115219213547
DALDAL013313013339

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    B. Boyle(15)
    R. Josi (36), C. Jarnkrok (13)
    wristxG 0.38win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    10:50

2nd period

  1. DAL
    J. Spezza(7)
    M. Janmark (15), J. Dickinson (9)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    3:31
  2. NSH
    R. Grimaldi(5)
    R. Hartman (10), R. Ellis (24)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +20 pts
    2-1
    10:57
  3. DAL
    E. Lindell(9)PPG
    J. Spezza (17), J. Klingberg (21)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +20 pts
    2-2
    17:29
  4. DAL
    T. Seguin(25)
    R. Hintz (6), E. Lindell (17)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +22 pts
    2-3
    17:55
  5. NSH
    F. Forsberg(21)
    R. Ellis (25)
    backhandxG 0.28win prob +22 pts
    3-3
    18:16

3rd period

  1. NSH
    R. Josi(12)
    K. Turris (13), R. Ellis (26)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +29 pts
    4-3
    7:35
  2. NSH
    R. Josi(13)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.26win prob +5 pts
    5-3
    19:29

Penalties

NSH 6 PIM·DAL 6 PIM

1st

  • 8:43DALRoman Polak · Trippingdrawn by Ryan Hartman2 min
  • 17:39NSHBrian Boyle · Holdingdrawn by Joel L'Esperance2 min

2nd

  • 15:44NSHDan Hamhuis · Hookingdrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min

3rd

  • 1:03DALJason Spezza · Slashingdrawn by Nick Bonino2 min
  • 5:53DALMiro Heiskanen · Interferencedrawn by Ryan Hartman2 min
  • 5:53NSHRyan Hartman · Embellishmentdrawn by Miro Heiskanen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalNSH goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Roman Josi, 3rd 7:35 — NSH 48% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.33J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.21J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.19R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.18A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.18J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.18M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.17T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.13R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.12R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.11A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.09T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.09J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.09J. Spezza · Missed · xG 0.09R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.09A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.09A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.08J. Dickinson · Missed · xG 0.08A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.08J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.08J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.08R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.07T. Seguin · Goal · xG 0.06J. Klingberg · Missed · xG 0.06J. L'Esperance · On goal · xG 0.06R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.06R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.06A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.05J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.05J. Spezza · Goal · xG 0.05E. Lindell · Goal · xG 0.04T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.04R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.03J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.03J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.03V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.03A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.03J. Oleksiak · On goal · xG 0.02R. Polak · On goal · xG 0.02J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.01A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.01T. Fedun · Missed · xG 0.00E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.00J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.00R. Polak · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL3 G · 3.6 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsDAL
4.74 G
All situations
3 G3.6
4.34 G
Even strength
2 G2.8
0.20 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 103 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH62%38%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.40 – 3.62

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsDAL
47
Shots on goal
39
54%
Faceoffs
46%
0/2
Power play
1/2
6
Penalty minutes
6
18
Hits
25
14
Blocked shots
20
14
Giveaways
21
6
Takeaways
14

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
76P. SubbanD000-140.14200—25:52
14M. EkholmD000040.18010—25:15
4R. EllisD033+420.13110—23:22
59R. JosiD213+450.70100—23:18
92R. JohansenC000+130.390205318:48
33V. ArvidssonL000020.37050—17:08
9F. ForsbergL101070.70110—16:30
19C. JarnkrokC011+220.27010016:21
13N. BoninoC000+120.130105016:02
11B. BoyleC101+220.476124014:42
10C. SissonsC000010.213008314:07
8K. TurrisC011+120.111006012:53
38R. HartmanR011+120.14102—12:39
23R. GrimaldiR101+130.37000—12:38
89F. GaudreauC000030.152006312:28
22K. FialaL000-110.02000—11:39
5D. HamhuisD000-120.22012—10:40
7Y. WeberD000000.00000—10:01
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Rinne(W)39363.9233.63+0.6359:52

Season series

NSH leads 3-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).