UCF vs. East Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCFTeam statsECU
- Q4 3:21ECUKeaton Mitchell 37 Yd Run (Andrew Conrad Kick)13–34
- Q4 3:36UCFColton Boomer 36 Yd Field Goal 13–27
- Q4 12:51ECUAndrew Conrad 26 Yd Field Goal 10–27
- Q3 6:23ECUKeaton Mitchell 6 Yd Run (Andrew Conrad Kick)10–24
- Q3 10:28UCFIsaiah Bowser 3 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)10–17
- Q2 0:00UCFColton Boomer 27 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 0:49ECUC.J. Johnson 39 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Andrew Conrad Kick)0–17
- Q2 7:46ECUHolton Ahlers 3 Yd Run (Andrew Conrad Kick)0–10
- Q1 2:00ECUAndrew Conrad 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJohn Rhys Plumlee 25/37, 296 YDS, 3 INT
- RushIsaiah Bowser 11 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKobe Hudson 5 REC, 85 YDS
- PassHolton Ahlers 30/36, 311 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKeaton Mitchell 16 CAR, 105 YDS, 2 TD
- RecC.J. Johnson 11 REC, 140 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsECU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:46ECU +24%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)
- Q3 6:23ECU +23%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)
- Q3 10:28UCF +19%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)
- Q2 0:49ECU +17%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 39 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)
- Q4 12:51ECU +13%
Andrew Conrad 26 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 2:00ECU +10%
Andrew Conrad 28 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UCF vs. East Carolina?
UCF 13, East Carolina 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UCF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UCF | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 426 | Total yards | 458 |
| 296 | Passing yards | 311 |
| 130 | Rushing yards | 147 |
| 23 | First downs | 24 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 9-14 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 25/37 | Comp/Att | 30/36 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-28 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 24:49 | Possession | 35:11 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:21ECUKeaton Mitchell 37 Yd Run (Andrew Conrad Kick)13–34
- Q4 3:36UCFColton Boomer 36 Yd Field Goal 13–27
- Q4 12:51ECUAndrew Conrad 26 Yd Field Goal 10–27
- Q3 6:23ECUKeaton Mitchell 6 Yd Run (Andrew Conrad Kick)10–24
- Q3 10:28UCFIsaiah Bowser 3 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)10–17
- Q2 0:00UCFColton Boomer 27 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 0:49ECUC.J. Johnson 39 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Andrew Conrad Kick)0–17
- Q2 7:46ECUHolton Ahlers 3 Yd Run (Andrew Conrad Kick)0–10
- Q1 2:00ECUAndrew Conrad 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ECU Elo 1505, UCF Elo 1767 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ECU +8.1 (31% to win) — 2.6 points clear of UCF's market line of +5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#36 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #81 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →East Carolina leads 11–10 · 29% have been one-possession games
| UCF | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.5 (#60) | CORE overall | +4.5 (#52) |
| +5 / +3 | offense / defense | +6 / +2 |
| 2.71 | points / drive | 2.64 |
| 2.15 | allowed / drive | 2.41 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →