Vanderbilt vs. Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VANTeam statsTEX
- Q4 0:33VANRichie Hoskins 8 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)31–34
- Q4 3:54VANEli Stowers 67 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Diego Pavia Pass to Junior Sherrill for Two-Point Conversion)24–34
- Q4 10:05VANDiego Pavia 25 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–34
- Q3 0:06TEXMason Shipley 37 Yd Field Goal 10–34
- Q3 9:12TEXEmmett Mosley V 6 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)10–31
- Q2 0:11VANEli Stowers 18 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)10–24
- Q2 7:02TEXQuintrevion Wisner 4 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)3–24
- Q2 11:22VANBrock Taylor 44 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q1 2:11TEXCJ Baxter 6 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)0–17
- Q1 11:38TEXMason Shipley 39 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 14:49TEXRyan Wingo 75 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDiego Pavia 27/38, 365 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDiego Pavia 14 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEli Stowers 7 REC, 146 YDS, 2 TD
- PassArch Manning 25/33, 328 YDS, 3 TD
- RushQuintrevion Wisner 18 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRyan Wingo 2 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEX up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:33VAN +16%
Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short right to #5 R.Hoskins caught at TEX00, for 8 yards to the TEX00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 0:33TEX +16%
Kneel down by Texas at TEX46 for loss of 1 yard
- Q1 2:11TEX +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short right to #4 C.Baxter caught at VAN00, for 6 yards to the VAN00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Vanderbilt vs. Texas?
Vanderbilt 31, Texas 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
| VAN | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 423 | Total yards | 428 |
| 365 | Passing yards | 328 |
| 58 | Rushing yards | 100 |
| 25 | First downs | 23 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 7-11 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 27/38 | Comp/Att | 25/33 |
| 9.6 | Yards per pass | 9.9 |
| 2.4 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-70 | Penalties | 9-70 |
| 30:59 | Possession | 29:01 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:54 VAN go for it on 4th & 5 at TEX 25. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:33VANRichie Hoskins 8 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)31–34
- Q4 3:54VANEli Stowers 67 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Diego Pavia Pass to Junior Sherrill for Two-Point Conversion)24–34
- Q4 10:05VANDiego Pavia 25 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–34
- Q3 0:06TEXMason Shipley 37 Yd Field Goal 10–34
- Q3 9:12TEXEmmett Mosley V 6 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)10–31
- Q2 0:11VANEli Stowers 18 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)10–24
- Q2 7:02TEXQuintrevion Wisner 4 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)3–24
- Q2 11:22VANBrock Taylor 44 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q1 2:11TEXCJ Baxter 6 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)0–17
- Q1 11:38TEXMason Shipley 39 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 14:49TEXRyan Wingo 75 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEX Elo 1925, VAN Elo 1765 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEX -8.8 (73% to win) — 5.3 points clear of TEX's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#122 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #31 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →Vanderbilt leads 7–4–1 · Texas has won 2 straight · 58% have been one-possession games
| VAN | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| +25.4 (#8) | CORE overall | +14.3 (#28) |
| +28 / +2 | offense / defense | +5 / -9 |
| 3.85 | points / drive | 2.55 |
| 2.40 | allowed / drive | 1.74 |
| 16% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →