| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 0 | 10 | 0 | 21 | 31 |
| TEX | 17 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TEX Elo 1925, VAN Elo 1765) plus home-field advantage. That projects TEX -8.8 (74% to win) — 5.3 points of value on TEX versus the market line of -3.5.
TEX up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Vanderbilt 31, Texas 34.
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TEX pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short right to #1 R.Wingo caught at TEX20, for 75 yards to the VAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:49, 1ST DOWN #49 M.Shipley kick attempt good (H: #19 J.Bouwmeester, LS: #58 L.St. Louis)
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete deep right to #9 E.Stowers caught at TEX30, for 67 yards to the TEX00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:54, 1ST DOWN #0 J.Sherrill pass attempt Successful #0 J.Sherrill pass attempt Successful. The previous play is under automatic review - "" #0 J.Sherrill pass attempt Successful. The previous play is under automatic review - "". CALL UPHELD #0 J.Sherrill pass attempt Successful. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Pavia pass complete short middle to #9 E.Stowers caught at TEX09, for 18 yards to the TEX00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:11, 1ST DOWN #88 B.Taylor kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Haberer, LS: #46 D.Harris)
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