UNLV vs. Miami (OH): Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNLVTeam statsM-OH
- Q4 0:15UNLVRamon Villela 23 Yd Field Goal 41–38
- Q4 6:19M-OHA. Colandrea pass intercepted,C. Hondru return for 47 yds for a TD (D. Dzioban KICK)24–37
- Q4 6:50UNLVKeyvone Lee 1 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)38–38
- Q4 7:33M-OHC. Costa kick for 65 yds,K. Reynolds return for 100 yds for a TD (D. Dzioban KICK)24–23
- Q4 7:45UNLVA. Colandrea pass to J. Bradley for 4 yds for a TD (R. Villela KICK)24–23
- Q4 12:45UNLVJ. Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD (R. Villela KICK)17–23
- Q4 13:13UNLVTaeshaun Lyons 9 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)31–38
- Q3 6:19M-OHCorban Hondru 47 Yd Interception Return (Dom Dzioban Kick)24–38
- Q3 7:33M-OHKeith Reynolds 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Dom Dzioban Kick)24–31
- Q3 7:45UNLVJaden Bradley 4 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)24–24
- Q3 12:45UNLVJai'Den Thomas 3 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)17–24
- Q2 0:24M-OHDom Dzioban 40 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q2 8:10M-OHKenny Tracy 22 Yd pass from Henry Hesson (Dom Dzioban Kick)10–21
- Q2 10:41UNLVAamaris Brown 67 Yd Interception Return (Ramon Villela Kick)10–14
- Q2 14:18UNLVRamon Villela 27 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 3:25M-OHKeith Reynolds 3 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Dom Dzioban Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:15M-OHKenny Tracy 29 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Dom Dzioban Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- M-OH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNLV did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.0 vs 3rd & 7.9
- PassAnthony Colandrea 29/43, 293 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushJai'Den Thomas 13 CAR, 120 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaden Bradley 7 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- PassHenry Hesson 8/17, 134 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKenny Tracy 16 CAR, 104 YDS
- RecKam Perry 5 REC, 122 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsM-OH up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 6:13UNLV +48%
Keyvone Lee run for 5 yds to the UNLV 18
- Q4 10:52UNLV +26%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 31 yds to the M-OH 18 for a 1ST down
- Q4 10:52M-OH +23%
Pierse Stainton punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the M-OH 49
- Q2 8:10M-OH +21%
Henry Hesson pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 22 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)
- Q3 12:45UNLV +19%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)
- Q2 10:41UNLV +18%
Dequan Finn pass intercepted Aamaris Brown return for 67 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of UNLV vs. Miami (OH)?
UNLV 41, Miami (OH) 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNLV) was correct.
| UNLV | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| 515 | Total yards | 396 |
| 293 | Passing yards | 265 |
| 222 | Rushing yards | 131 |
| 30 | First downs | 19 |
| 12-17 | 3rd down | 1-8 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 29/43 | Comp/Att | 15/31 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-35 | Penalties | 7-79 |
| 38:08 | Possession | 21:52 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:45 UNLV go for it on 4th & 12 at M-OH 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:15UNLVRamon Villela 23 Yd Field Goal 41–38
- Q4 6:19M-OHA. Colandrea pass intercepted,C. Hondru return for 47 yds for a TD (D. Dzioban KICK)24–37
- Q4 6:50UNLVKeyvone Lee 1 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)38–38
- Q4 7:33M-OHC. Costa kick for 65 yds,K. Reynolds return for 100 yds for a TD (D. Dzioban KICK)24–23
- Q4 7:45UNLVA. Colandrea pass to J. Bradley for 4 yds for a TD (R. Villela KICK)24–23
- Q4 12:45UNLVJ. Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD (R. Villela KICK)17–23
- Q4 13:13UNLVTaeshaun Lyons 9 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)31–38
- Q3 6:19M-OHCorban Hondru 47 Yd Interception Return (Dom Dzioban Kick)24–38
- Q3 7:33M-OHKeith Reynolds 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Dom Dzioban Kick)24–31
- Q3 7:45UNLVJaden Bradley 4 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)24–24
- Q3 12:45UNLVJai'Den Thomas 3 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)17–24
- Q2 0:24M-OHDom Dzioban 40 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q2 8:10M-OHKenny Tracy 22 Yd pass from Henry Hesson (Dom Dzioban Kick)10–21
- Q2 10:41UNLVAamaris Brown 67 Yd Interception Return (Ramon Villela Kick)10–14
- Q2 14:18UNLVRamon Villela 27 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 3:25M-OHKeith Reynolds 3 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Dom Dzioban Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:15M-OHKenny Tracy 29 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Dom Dzioban Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (M-OH Elo 1422, UNLV Elo 1630 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects M-OH +5.9 (36% to win) — 3.9 points clear of UNLV's market line of +2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UNLV | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.9 (#69) | CORE overall | -6.0 (#81) |
| +10 / +12 | offense / defense | -7 / -1 |
| 2.90 | points / drive | 1.96 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 1.91 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →