| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 7 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 48 |
| TXST | 28 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TXST Elo 1579, TROY Elo 1447) plus home-field advantage. That projects TXST -7.7 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
TXST up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Troy 48, Texas State 41.
No — the model picked TXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had TXST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Lincoln Pare run for 62 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)
Greg Burrell run for 59 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to RaRa Thomas for 57 yds for a TD Texas State Penalty, (Yards) declined (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
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