Troy vs. Texas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TROYTeam statsTXST
- OT 0:00TROYDJ Epps 6 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)48–41
- Q4 1:13TROYDJ Epps 18 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Tucker Kilcrease Pass to DJ Epps for Two-Point Conversion)41–41
- Q4 3:55TXSTTyler Robles 37 Yd Field Goal 33–41
- Q4 12:45TROYTrae Swartz 2 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)33–38
- Q3 3:45TXSTLincoln Pare 1 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)27–38
- Q3 8:03TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 47 Yd Field Goal 27–31
- Q3 11:27TROYJarris Williams 2 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)24–31
- Q2 0:00TROYPaddy McAteer 53 Yd Field Goal 17–31
- Q2 2:35TXSTTyler Robles 42 Yd Field Goal 14–31
- Q2 7:34TROYJackson Worley 6 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)14–28
- Q1 0:08TXSTLincoln Pare 62 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)7–28
- Q1 1:12TROYRaRa Thomas 57 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)7–21
- Q1 2:29TXSTLincoln Pare 7 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)0–21
- Q1 9:20TXSTGreg Burrell 59 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:15TXSTE. Crenshaw punt for 49 yds,B. Sparks returns for 77 yds for a TD,Texas State penalty,0–13
- Q1 11:56TXSTBrad Jackson 8 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TROY played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TXST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 5.4
- PassTucker Kilcrease 30/39, 415 YDS, 5 TD
- RushTray Taylor 2 CAR, 18 YDS
- RecDJ Epps 10 REC, 148 YDS, 2 TD
- PassBrad Jackson 19/22, 248 YDS
- RushGreg Burrell 13 CAR, 136 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChris Dawn Jr. 7 REC, 119 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTXST up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- OT 0:00TROY +85%
DJ Epps 6 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)
- Q4 1:13TROY +73%
DJ Epps 18 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Tucker Kilcrease Pass to DJ Epps for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 0:00TXST +70%
Tyler Robles 42 yd FG MISSED
- Q4 3:55TXST +23%
Tyler Robles 37 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 1:07TROY +22%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TXST 2
- Q4 12:45TROY +16%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Trae Swartz for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
FAQ
What was the final score of Troy vs. Texas State?
Troy 48, Texas State 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TROY | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 458 | Total yards | 574 |
| 415 | Passing yards | 248 |
| 43 | Rushing yards | 326 |
| 27 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 10-17 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 30/41 | Comp/Att | 19/22 |
| 10.1 | Yards per pass | 11.3 |
| 1.3 | Yards per rush | 6.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 10-79 |
| 28:59 | Possession | 31:01 |
Costliest call
Q4 15:00 TROY go for it on 4th & 11 at TXST 41. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00TROYDJ Epps 6 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)48–41
- Q4 1:13TROYDJ Epps 18 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Tucker Kilcrease Pass to DJ Epps for Two-Point Conversion)41–41
- Q4 3:55TXSTTyler Robles 37 Yd Field Goal 33–41
- Q4 12:45TROYTrae Swartz 2 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)33–38
- Q3 3:45TXSTLincoln Pare 1 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)27–38
- Q3 8:03TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 47 Yd Field Goal 27–31
- Q3 11:27TROYJarris Williams 2 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)24–31
- Q2 0:00TROYPaddy McAteer 53 Yd Field Goal 17–31
- Q2 2:35TXSTTyler Robles 42 Yd Field Goal 14–31
- Q2 7:34TROYJackson Worley 6 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)14–28
- Q1 0:08TXSTLincoln Pare 62 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)7–28
- Q1 1:12TROYRaRa Thomas 57 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)7–21
- Q1 2:29TXSTLincoln Pare 7 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)0–21
- Q1 9:20TXSTGreg Burrell 59 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:15TXSTE. Crenshaw punt for 49 yds,B. Sparks returns for 77 yds for a TD,Texas State penalty,0–13
- Q1 11:56TXSTBrad Jackson 8 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TXST Elo 1579, TROY Elo 1447 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TXST -7.7 (71% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#76 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #57 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Troy leads 10–1 · 36% have been one-possession games
| TROY | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.6 (#116) | CORE overall | +9.4 (#41) |
| -13 / +4 | offense / defense | +12 / +3 |
| 1.77 | points / drive | 3.21 |
| 1.83 | allowed / drive | 2.73 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +0 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →