Troy vs. Old Dominion: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TROYTeam statsODU
- Q4 7:51ODUT. Jones run for 65 yds, for a TD (N. Eichner KICK)0–33
- Q3 8:57ODUColton Joseph 25 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–26
- Q2 5:54ODUColton Joseph 11 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)0–20
- Q2 10:16ODUNathanial Eichner 28 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 3:34ODUNathanial Eichner 32 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 9:37ODUJa'Cory Thomas 19 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Nathanial Eichner Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TROY played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ODU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 5.4
- PassGoose Crowder 11/21, 98 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJarris Williams 5 CAR, 16 YDS
- RecRoman Mothershed 3 REC, 37 YDS
- PassColton Joseph 10/20, 147 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDevin Roche 16 CAR, 145 YDS
- RecTre' Brown 5 REC, 112 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsODU up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 730 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Troy vs. Old Dominion?
Troy 0, Old Dominion 33.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ODU) was correct.
| TROY | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| 138 | Total yards | 503 |
| 112 | Passing yards | 152 |
| 26 | Rushing yards | 351 |
| 9 | First downs | 20 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 13/23 | Comp/Att | 11/21 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 0.8 | Yards per rush | 7.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-35 | Penalties | 6-61 |
| 29:45 | Possession | 30:15 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:58 TROY punt on 4th & 1 at TROY 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:51ODUT. Jones run for 65 yds, for a TD (N. Eichner KICK)0–33
- Q3 8:57ODUColton Joseph 25 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–26
- Q2 5:54ODUColton Joseph 11 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)0–20
- Q2 10:16ODUNathanial Eichner 28 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 3:34ODUNathanial Eichner 32 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 9:37ODUJa'Cory Thomas 19 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Nathanial Eichner Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ODU Elo 1480, TROY Elo 1445 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ODU -3.8 (61% to win) — 5.7 points clear of TROY's market line of -9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TROY | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.6 (#116) | CORE overall | +18.9 (#17) |
| -13 / +4 | offense / defense | +5 / -14 |
| 1.77 | points / drive | 2.46 |
| 1.83 | allowed / drive | 1.52 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +0 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →