| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ODU | 10 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ODU Elo 1480, TROY Elo 1445) plus home-field advantage. That projects ODU -3.8 (61% to win) — 5.7 points of value on TROY versus the market line of -9.5.
ODU up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 730 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Troy 0, Old Dominion 33.
Yes — the model's pick (ODU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ODU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
No Huddle-Shotgun #20 T.Jones rush middle for 65 yards gain to the TRO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:51, 1ST DOWN #93 N.Eichner kick attempt good (H: #96 I.Brandt, LS: #30 B.Durkin)
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Roche rush middle for 2 yards loss to the TRO03 (#7 J.Stringer; #1 L.Medina), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Shotgun #9 G.Crowder pass incomplete short right to #88 J.Worley thrown to ODU10 broken up by #3 M.Easterly, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
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