Southern Miss vs. South Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USMTeam statsUSA
- Q4 0:54USMJaylin Carter 1 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)35–42
- Q4 6:35USMMicah Davis 29 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)28–42
- Q4 7:25USAKentrel Bullock 64 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)21–42
- Q4 8:32USMCarl Chester 11 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)21–35
- Q3 3:04USMJeffery Pittman 1 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)14–35
- Q3 9:20USABishop Davenport 7 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)7–35
- Q3 14:15USABishop Davenport 1 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)7–28
- Q2 2:28USAKentrel Bullock 26 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)7–21
- Q2 6:28USMCarl Chester 52 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)7–14
- Q2 11:15USAKentrel Bullock 15 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)0–14
- Q1 0:56USAKeenan Phillips 13 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USM lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassBraylon Braxton 31/52, 400 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJeffery Pittman 12 CAR, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCarl Chester 5 REC, 128 YDS, 2 TD
- PassBishop Davenport 20/23, 151 YDS
- RushKentrel Bullock 23 CAR, 187 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJeremy Scott 4 REC, 41 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSA up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:56USA +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 13 yards gain to the USM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 6:28USM +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 B.Braxton pass complete deep left to #7 C.Chester caught at USA12, for 52 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 2:28USA +12%
Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 26 yards gain to the USM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 11:15USA +12%
Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush left for 15 yards gain to the USM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern Miss vs. South Alabama?
Southern Miss 35, South Alabama 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USA) was correct.
| USM | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 441 | Total yards | 449 |
| 400 | Passing yards | 186 |
| 41 | Rushing yards | 263 |
| 24 | First downs | 26 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 31/52 | Comp/Att | 23/26 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 1.8 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-29 | Penalties | 5-52 |
| 22:43 | Possession | 37:17 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:13 USM go for it on 4th & 10 at USA 21. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.98 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:54USMJaylin Carter 1 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)35–42
- Q4 6:35USMMicah Davis 29 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)28–42
- Q4 7:25USAKentrel Bullock 64 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)21–42
- Q4 8:32USMCarl Chester 11 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)21–35
- Q3 3:04USMJeffery Pittman 1 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)14–35
- Q3 9:20USABishop Davenport 7 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)7–35
- Q3 14:15USABishop Davenport 1 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)7–28
- Q2 2:28USAKentrel Bullock 26 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)7–21
- Q2 6:28USMCarl Chester 52 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)7–14
- Q2 11:15USAKentrel Bullock 15 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)0–14
- Q1 0:56USAKeenan Phillips 13 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USA Elo 1369, USM Elo 1303 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USA -5 (64% to win) — 7.5 points clear of USA's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USM | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.7 (#86) | CORE overall | -14.2 (#104) |
| -6 / +1 | offense / defense | -4 / +11 |
| 2.09 | points / drive | 2.35 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 2.86 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →