Hancock Whitney StadiumConference gameClosing line: USM +-2.5 · USA covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 0 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 35 |
| USA | 7 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 42 |
Team stats
USMthis game · better side highlightedUSA
441
Total yards
449400
Passing yards
18641
Rushing yards
26324
First downs
264-13 · 31%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USA 1369
USM 1303
Projected spread
USA -5
incl. home edge
Model pick
USA
65% to win
Market spread
USA +2.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
USA
7.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
65%
USA · market 57%
Our model blends Elo ratings (USA Elo 1369, USM Elo 1303) plus home-field advantage. That projects USA -5 (65% to win) — 7.5 points of value on USA versus the market line of +2.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
USA (top)USM (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USA 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- USA pass offense (0.23 PPA) vs. USM pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge USA.
- USM rush offense (0.10 PPA) vs. USA rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge USA.
- USM pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. USA pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge USA.
Drive-by-drive
USM 5/13 scoring drives← own end zone →USA 6/13 scoring drives
USADOWNS16 pl, 71 yds· own 25Q1
USMPUNT7 pl, 10 yds· own 4Q1
USATD7 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
USA up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
USA went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern Miss vs. South Alabama?
Southern Miss 35, South Alabama 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had USA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.