#7Carl Chester

WR·Southern Miss·2025

Carl Chester is a Vertical Threat WR for Southern Miss. Carl's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 58 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Carl Chester's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

30 Receptions550 Rec yards6 Rec TD18.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume18
Explosiveness76
Consistency68
Pass-Down97

Player type

Vertical Threat WR

Elite deep receiver who stretches the field. Wins downfield, commands safety attention, and creates the threat that opens underneath routes.

Downfield threatYAC upsideCreates space for teammates

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency68th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.24 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 2.54 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Jacksonville State (SP+ -7).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Quadree Henderson	Pittsburgh	2016	63	0.530	1.6	33.4
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
Bert Emanuel Jr.	Central Michigan	2022	53	0.460	1.6	24.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsMississippi State	L17-34	4.1	5	52	10.4	0	22	0.41
2	vsJackson State	W38-20	—	3	40	13.3	0	23	0.28
4	@Louisiana Tech	L20-30	-1.3	4	118	29.5	0	42	1.03
5	vsJacksonville State	W42-25	-6.7	1	13	13.0	1	13	2.54
7	@Georgia Southern	W38-35	-9.4	2	43	21.5	1	30	0.71
8	@Louisiana	W22-10	-10.1	2	8	4.0	0	5	0.08
9	vsUL Monroe	W49-21	-21.6	1	8	8.0	1	8	0.84
11	@Arkansas State	W27-21	-8.8	1	35	35.0	0	35	0.01
12	vsTexas State	L14-41	2.3	1	10	10.0	0	10	-0.43
13	@South Alabama	L35-42	-12.7	5	128	25.6	2	52	1.33
14	vsTroy	L18-28	-4.8	4	76	19.0	1	30	1.25
20	vsWestern Kentucky	L16-27	1.6	1	19	19.0	0	19	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

6.4%

Passing plays

12.6%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

6.4%

Passing downs

6.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.55
Passing downs: 0.83
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.64 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).