South Florida vs. UAB: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USFTeam statsUAB
- Q4 1:42USFByrum Brown 2 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)48–18
- Q4 12:09USFMudia Reuben 59 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)41–18
- Q4 14:04UABSolomon Beebe 3 Yd Run (Ryder Burton Run for Two-Point Conversion)34–18
- Q3 4:04USFNykahi Davenport 2 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)34–10
- Q3 7:59USFNico Gramatica 43 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q3 14:38USFMudia Reuben 60 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)24–10
- Q2 1:13USFNico Gramatica 49 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 4:32USFWyatt Sullivan 6 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)14–10
- Q1 1:16UABIsaiah Jacobs 6 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)7–10
- Q1 8:30UABJonah Delange 30 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:47USFByrum Brown 1 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UAB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 5.6
- PassByrum Brown 19/25, 353 YDS, 3 TD
- RushNykahi Davenport 17 CAR, 121 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMudia Reuben 5 REC, 174 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJalen Kitna 20/36, 230 YDS, 3 INT
- RushIsaiah Jacobs 6 CAR, 38 YDS, 1 TD
- RecIverson Hooks 10 REC, 146 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSF up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 4:32USF +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 B.Brown pass complete short middle to #8 W.Sullivan caught at UAB00, for 6 yards to the UAB00 TOUCHDOWN. The previous play is under automatic rev…
- Q1 1:16UAB +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 I.Jacobs rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD
- Q3 14:38USF +7%
Mudia Reuben 60 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of South Florida vs. UAB?
South Florida 48, UAB 18.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USF) was correct.
| USF | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| 544 | Total yards | 382 |
| 353 | Passing yards | 251 |
| 191 | Rushing yards | 131 |
| 24 | First downs | 27 |
| 6-10 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 19/25 | Comp/Att | 21/40 |
| 14.1 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 5.6 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 13-104 | Penalties | 10-94 |
| 21:52 | Possession | 38:08 |
Costliest call
Q1 5:30 USF punt on 4th & 6 at UAB 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:42USFByrum Brown 2 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)48–18
- Q4 12:09USFMudia Reuben 59 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)41–18
- Q4 14:04UABSolomon Beebe 3 Yd Run (Ryder Burton Run for Two-Point Conversion)34–18
- Q3 4:04USFNykahi Davenport 2 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)34–10
- Q3 7:59USFNico Gramatica 43 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q3 14:38USFMudia Reuben 60 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)24–10
- Q2 1:13USFNico Gramatica 49 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 4:32USFWyatt Sullivan 6 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)14–10
- Q1 1:16UABIsaiah Jacobs 6 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)7–10
- Q1 8:30UABJonah Delange 30 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:47USFByrum Brown 1 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UAB Elo 1197, USF Elo 1729 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UAB +18.9 (12% to win) — 2.6 points clear of UAB's market line of +21.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USF | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.2 (#25) | CORE overall | -15.8 (#112) |
| +11 / -5 | offense / defense | -4 / +11 |
| 3.02 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 1.88 | allowed / drive | 3.61 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →