San Diego State vs. Nevada: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SDSUTeam statsNEV
- Q4 2:32NEVMarshaun Brown 16 Yd pass from Carter Jones (Joe McFadden Kick)44–10
- Q4 12:50NEVJoe McFadden 34 Yd Field Goal 44–3
- Q3 2:03SDSUGabriel Plascencia 49 Yd Field Goal 44–0
- Q3 7:05SDSUGabriel Plascencia 45 Yd Field Goal 41–0
- Q3 10:49SDSUGabriel Plascencia 29 Yd Field Goal 38–0
- Q2 1:46SDSULucky Sutton 3 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)35–0
- Q2 9:05SDSUJacob Bostick 31 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)28–0
- Q2 15:00SDSUChristian Washington 2 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)21–0
- Q1 7:11SDSUChris Johnson 45 Yd Interception Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)14–0
- Q1 14:01SDSUJordan Napier 75 Yd Punt Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NEV lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassJayden Denegal 14/17, 205 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLucky Sutton 17 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJordan Napier 5 REC, 110 YDS
- PassCarter Jones 15/30, 194 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushCaleb Ramseur 8 CAR, 35 YDS
- RecJett Carpenter 3 REC, 72 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSDSU up 44 entering the 4th quarter. Across 179 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:01SDSU +15%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 52 yds, Jordan Napier returns for 75 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
- Q1 7:11SDSU +11%
Chris Johnson 40 Yd Interception Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)
- Q2 15:00SDSU +6%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Christian Washington for 2 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of San Diego State vs. Nevada?
San Diego State 44, Nevada 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SDSU) was correct.
| SDSU | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 409 | Total yards | 254 |
| 205 | Passing yards | 194 |
| 204 | Rushing yards | 60 |
| 20 | First downs | 15 |
| 3-10 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 14/18 | Comp/Att | 15/30 |
| 11.4 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 1.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-43 | Penalties | 2-10 |
| 31:24 | Possession | 28:36 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:28 NEV punt on 4th & 2 at NEV 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.54 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:32NEVMarshaun Brown 16 Yd pass from Carter Jones (Joe McFadden Kick)44–10
- Q4 12:50NEVJoe McFadden 34 Yd Field Goal 44–3
- Q3 2:03SDSUGabriel Plascencia 49 Yd Field Goal 44–0
- Q3 7:05SDSUGabriel Plascencia 45 Yd Field Goal 41–0
- Q3 10:49SDSUGabriel Plascencia 29 Yd Field Goal 38–0
- Q2 1:46SDSULucky Sutton 3 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)35–0
- Q2 9:05SDSUJacob Bostick 31 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)28–0
- Q2 15:00SDSUChristian Washington 2 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)21–0
- Q1 7:11SDSUChris Johnson 45 Yd Interception Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)14–0
- Q1 14:01SDSUJordan Napier 75 Yd Punt Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEV Elo 1259, SDSU Elo 1463 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEV +5.8 (36% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSan Diego State leads 10–6 · 50% have been one-possession games
| SDSU | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.6 (#35) | CORE overall | -15.3 (#110) |
| -2 / -14 | offense / defense | -11 / +4 |
| 1.88 | points / drive | 1.33 |
| 1.14 | allowed / drive | 2.49 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -11 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →