Sat, Nov 1, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
| WKU | 0 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 35 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WKU Elo 1355, NMSU Elo 1225) plus home-field advantage. That projects WKU -7.6 (71% to win), essentially in line with the market.
WKU up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
New Mexico State 16, Western Kentucky 35.
Yes — the model's pick (WKU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had WKU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Stilton McKelvey 71 Yd Fumble Return (Ryan Hawk Kick)
(11:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete deep middle to #0 M.Henry caught at NMSU45, for 25 yards to the NMSU41, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
(07:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 L.Fife pass complete short left to #5 D.Faupel caught at WKU44, for 13 yards to the WKU44 (#2 A.Ali), 1ST DOWN
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