New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NMSUTeam statsWKU
- Q4 1:25NMSUStilton McKelvey 71 Yd Fumble Return (Ryan Hawk Kick)16–35
- Q4 11:12WKUJackson West 6 Yd pass from Rodney Tisdale Jr. (John Cannon Kick)9–35
- Q3 2:40WKUMatthew Henry 11 Yd pass from Rodney Tisdale Jr. (John Cannon Kick)9–28
- Q3 5:41WKULa'Vell Wright 5 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)9–21
- Q3 9:49NMSURyan Hawk 50 Yd Field Goal 9–14
- Q2 1:14WKUMoussa Barry 21 Yd pass from Rodney Tisdale Jr. (John Cannon Kick)6–14
- Q2 3:39WKUR. Tisdale Jr. pass to M. Henry for 22 yds, for a TD (J. Cannon KICK)6–7
- Q2 7:15NMSURyan Hawk 27 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 1:00NMSURyan Hawk 32 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NMSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WKU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.6 vs 3rd & 5.9
- PassLogan Fife 13/39, 112 YDS, 1 INT
- RushIsaiah Rudison 7 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecGavin Harris 3 REC, 29 YDS
- PassRodney Tisdale Jr. 30/38, 301 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushLa'Vell Wright 6 CAR, 44 YDS, 1 TD
- RecK.D. Hutchinson 7 REC, 83 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWKU up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:14WKU +23%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete deep left to #3 M.Barry caught at NMSU00, for 21 yards to the NMSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 7:05WKU +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 7 yards gain to the WKU32 (#4 N.Mitchell; #12 T.Gethers)
- Q2 3:39WKU +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Tisdale Jr. pass complete short right to #0 M.Henry caught at NMSU16, for 22 yards to the NMSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 7:15NMSU +14%
#17 R.Hawk field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD
- Q3 9:49NMSU +12%
#17 R.Hawk field goal attempt from 50 yards GOOD
- Q4 10:44NMSU +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 L.Fife pass incomplete deep right to #6 J.Owens thrown to WKU45 PENALTY WKU Offside (#6 N.Ward) 5 yards from NMSU28 to NMSU33. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky?
New Mexico State 16, Western Kentucky 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WKU) was correct.
| NMSU | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 178 | Total yards | 429 |
| 112 | Passing yards | 301 |
| 66 | Rushing yards | 128 |
| 14 | First downs | 24 |
| 5-18 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 13/40 | Comp/Att | 30/41 |
| 2.8 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-50 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 26:14 | Possession | 33:46 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:52 WKU punt on 4th & 1 at WKU 13. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:25NMSUStilton McKelvey 71 Yd Fumble Return (Ryan Hawk Kick)16–35
- Q4 11:12WKUJackson West 6 Yd pass from Rodney Tisdale Jr. (John Cannon Kick)9–35
- Q3 2:40WKUMatthew Henry 11 Yd pass from Rodney Tisdale Jr. (John Cannon Kick)9–28
- Q3 5:41WKULa'Vell Wright 5 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)9–21
- Q3 9:49NMSURyan Hawk 50 Yd Field Goal 9–14
- Q2 1:14WKUMoussa Barry 21 Yd pass from Rodney Tisdale Jr. (John Cannon Kick)6–14
- Q2 3:39WKUR. Tisdale Jr. pass to M. Henry for 22 yds, for a TD (J. Cannon KICK)6–7
- Q2 7:15NMSURyan Hawk 27 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 1:00NMSURyan Hawk 32 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WKU Elo 1355, NMSU Elo 1225 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WKU -7.6 (70% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NMSU | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.5 (#120) | CORE overall | -6.3 (#83) |
| -12 / +6 | offense / defense | -6 / +0 |
| 1.66 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 2.21 | allowed / drive | 1.79 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →