Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith StadiumConference gameClosing line: WKU -7.5 · WKU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
| WKU | 0 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 35 |
Team stats
NMSUthis game · better side highlightedWKU
176
Total yards
429110
Passing yards
30166
Rushing yards
12814
First downs
245-18 · 28%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WKU 1355
NMSU 1225
Projected spread
WKU -7.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
WKU
71% to win
Market spread
WKU -7.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
71%
WKU · market 73%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WKU Elo 1355, NMSU Elo 1225) plus home-field advantage. That projects WKU -7.6 (71% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WKU (top)NMSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WKU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- NMSU rush offense (-0.09 PPA) vs. WKU rush defense (0.09 allowed) — edge WKU.
- WKU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. NMSU rush defense (0.00 allowed) — edge WKU.
- WKU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. NMSU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge NMSU.
Drive-by-drive
NMSU 3/14 scoring drives← own end zone →WKU 6/15 scoring drives
NMSUPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 21Q1
WKUDOWNS7 pl, 31 yds· own 35Q1
NMSUPUNT7 pl, 16 yds· own 36Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WKU up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
WKU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky?
New Mexico State 16, Western Kentucky 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WKU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WKU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.