#2K.D. Hutchinson

WR·Western Kentucky·2025

K.D. Hutchinson is a Versatile WR for Western Kentucky. K.D.'s 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 88 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So K.D. Hutchinson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

88 Rush yards2 Rush TD13 Carries6.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

66 Receptions618 Rec yards3 Rec TD9.4 Yards/rec

Returns

2 Punt returns-2 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume29
Explosiveness16
Consistency75
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency75th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.62 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.98 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs North Alabama.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Quadree Henderson	Pittsburgh	2016	63	0.530	1.6	33.4
Javion Posey	Florida Atlantic	2020	53	0.450	1.4	23.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
0	vsSam Houston	W41-24	-27.8	4	34	8.5	1	12	—
1	vsNorth Alabama	W55-6	—	5	113	22.6	2	78	1.98
2	@Toledo	L21-45	6.0	3	37	12.3	0	23	1.06
4	vsNevada	W31-16	-13.4	2	18	9.0	0	13	0.53
5	@Missouri State	W27-22	-10.7	3	44	14.7	0	17	0.81
6	@Delaware	W27-24	-10.9	9	58	6.4	0	15	0.77
8	vsFlorida International	L6-25	-10.5	4	26	6.5	0	19	-0.09
9	@Louisiana Tech	W28-27	-1.3	6	77	12.8	0	21	0.76
10	vsNew Mexico State	W35-16	-15.5	7	83	11.9	0	38	0.68
12	vsMiddle Tennessee	W42-26	-16.0	5	52	10.4	0	34	0.33
13	@LSU	L10-13	10.3	8	40	5.0	0	9	0.06
14	@Jacksonville State	L34-37	-6.7	5	37	7.4	0	11	0.22
20	vsSouthern Miss	W27-16	-7.1	5	-1	-0.2	0	6	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

10.0%

Passing plays

15.3%

Rushing plays

3.5%

Standard downs

10.0%

Passing downs

10.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.36
Passing downs: 0.80
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.53 / 0.35

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).