Jacksonville State vs. Florida International: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
JXSTTeam statsFIU
- Q4 1:54FIUNoah Grant 42 Yd Field Goal 21–27
- Q4 12:56FIUJ. Pesansky pass to A. Perry for 64 yds, for a TD (N. Grant KICK)21–24
- Q3 0:35FIUNoah Grant 35 Yd Field Goal 21–17
- Q3 7:14JXSTC. Creel pass to P. Baldwin for 20 yds, for a TD (G. Rippa KICK)21–14
- Q3 9:33FIUJ. Pesansky pass to C. Staley for 1 yd, for a TD (N. Grant KICK)14–14
- Q2 8:06JXSTC. Cook run for 1 yd, for a TD (G. Rippa KICK)14–7
- Q1 5:09JXSTC. Creel pass to D. Johnson for 28 yds, for a TD (G. Rippa KICK)7–7
- Q1 7:06FIUK. Owens run for 3 yds, for a TD (N. Grant KICK)0–7
How the model called it
- PassCaden Creel 17/30, 198 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCam Cook 25 CAR, 138 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDeondre Johnson 3 REC, 49 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJoe Pesansky 14/28, 196 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushKejon Owens 21 CAR, 135 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAlex Perry 4 REC, 109 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsJXST up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:59JXST +48%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #9 C.Coombs caught at JSU33, for 8 yards to the JSU33 (#27 M.Clark)
- Q4 12:56FIU +36%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Pesansky pass complete short left to #4 A.Perry caught at JSU45, for 64 yards to the JSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 6:21FIU +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Owens rush right for 2 yards gain to the FIU30 (#92 T.Carter)
- Q4 7:24JXST +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 5 yards gain to the JSU34 (#25 K.Simmons)
- Q4 8:22FIU +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 A.Carrie rush left for 2 yards loss to the FIU19 (#31 M.Woods)
- Q4 8:49JXST +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #4 C.Cook caught at JSU35, for 43 yards to the FIU22 (#22 S.Sterlin), 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Jacksonville State vs. Florida International?
Jacksonville State 21, Florida International 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked JXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| JXST | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 449 | Total yards | 398 |
| 198 | Passing yards | 196 |
| 251 | Rushing yards | 202 |
| 23 | First downs | 19 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 2-13 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 17/31 | Comp/Att | 14/28 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 9-70 |
| 28:22 | Possession | 31:38 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:11 JXST punt on 4th & 9 at FIU 37. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:54FIUNoah Grant 42 Yd Field Goal 21–27
- Q4 12:56FIUJ. Pesansky pass to A. Perry for 64 yds, for a TD (N. Grant KICK)21–24
- Q3 0:35FIUNoah Grant 35 Yd Field Goal 21–17
- Q3 7:14JXSTC. Creel pass to P. Baldwin for 20 yds, for a TD (G. Rippa KICK)21–14
- Q3 9:33FIUJ. Pesansky pass to C. Staley for 1 yd, for a TD (N. Grant KICK)14–14
- Q2 8:06JXSTC. Cook run for 1 yd, for a TD (G. Rippa KICK)14–7
- Q1 5:09JXSTC. Creel pass to D. Johnson for 28 yds, for a TD (G. Rippa KICK)7–7
- Q1 7:06FIUK. Owens run for 3 yds, for a TD (N. Grant KICK)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FIU Elo 1326, JXST Elo 1518 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FIU +5.3 (37% to win) — 7.8 points clear of JXST's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| JXST | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.7 (#99) | CORE overall | -15.2 (#109) |
| -4 / +7 | offense / defense | -11 / +4 |
| 2.12 | points / drive | 2.11 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 2.43 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -12 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →