Jacksonville State
7-3·Conference USA· Elo 1518
21–27
Final
Florida International
5-5·Conference USA· Elo 1326
Pitbull StadiumConference gameClosing line: FIU -2.5 · FIU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JXST | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| FIU | 7 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 27 |
Team stats
JXSTthis game · better side highlightedFIU
449
Total yards
398198
Passing yards
196251
Rushing yards
20223
First downs
193-13 · 23%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FIU 1326
JXST 1518
Projected spread
FIU +5.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
JXST
65% to win
Market spread
FIU -2.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
JXST
7.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
35%
FIU · market 43%
Our model blends Elo ratings (FIU Elo 1326, JXST Elo 1518) plus home-field advantage. That projects FIU +5.3 (35% to win) — 7.8 points of value on JXST versus the market line of -2.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
FIU (top)JXST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FIU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- JXST pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. FIU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge FIU.
- JXST rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. FIU rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge JXST.
- FIU rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. JXST rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge FIU.
Drive-by-drive
JXST 3/15 scoring drives← own end zone →FIU 5/15 scoring drives
JXSTMISS10 pl, 43 yds· own 25Q1
FIUTD8 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1
JXSTTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
JXST up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
65%
JXST went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Jacksonville State vs. Florida International?
Jacksonville State 21, Florida International 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked JXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had JXST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.