Sat, Nov 22, 8:30 PM


| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JXST | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| FIU | 7 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (FIU Elo 1326, JXST Elo 1518) plus home-field advantage. That projects FIU +5.3 (35% to win) — 7.8 points of value on JXST versus the market line of -2.5.
JXST up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Jacksonville State 21, Florida International 27.
No — the model picked JXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had JXST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(13:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Pesansky pass complete short left to #4 A.Perry caught at JSU45, for 64 yards to the JSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:56, 1ST DOWN #16 N.Grant kick attempt good (H: #6 T.Wilhoit, LS: #47 J.Wood)
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Pesansky pass intercepted by #3 T.Fegans at JSU00, Touchback
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FIU21 fumbled by #4 C.Cook at FIU20 forced by #35 J.Taylor recovered by FIU #13 D.Anderson at FIU21, End Of Play
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