Houston vs. Arizona State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HOUTeam statsASU
- Q4 5:12ASUChamon Metayer 27 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Jesus Gomez Kick)24–16
- Q4 11:24ASUJesus Gomez 47 Yd Field Goal 24–9
- Q4 13:56ASUCameron Harpole 3 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–6
- Q3 1:06HOUConner Weigman 1 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)24–0
- Q3 10:10HOUTanner Koziol 7 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)17–0
- Q1 0:41HOUConner Weigman 1 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:29HOUEthan Sanchez 26 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassConner Weigman 17/22, 201 YDS, 1 TD
- RushConner Weigman 21 CAR, 111 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTanner Koziol 7 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- PassSam Leavitt 18/35, 270 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRaleek Brown 11 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecMalik McClain 7 REC, 159 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHOU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:10HOU +24%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #9 T.Koziol caught at ASU00, for 7 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 0:41HOU +23%
#1 C.Weigman rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 2:08HOU +11%
#91 L.Dougherty punt 47 yards to the ASU05 fair catch by #87 Z.Sample at ASU05
- Q4 5:12ASU +11%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Sims pass complete short left to #7 C.Metayer caught at UH 12, for 27 yards to the UH 00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UH Holding declined
- Q3 1:06HOU +8%
#1 C.Weigman rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 10:29HOU +7%
#92 E.Sanchez field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Houston vs. Arizona State?
Houston 24, Arizona State 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ASU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HOU | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 384 | Total yards | 426 |
| 201 | Passing yards | 328 |
| 183 | Rushing yards | 98 |
| 22 | First downs | 19 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 17/22 | Comp/Att | 24/46 |
| 9.1 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-50 | Penalties | 12-76 |
| 37:02 | Possession | 22:58 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:15 HOU go for it on 4th & 13 at ASU 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:12ASUChamon Metayer 27 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Jesus Gomez Kick)24–16
- Q4 11:24ASUJesus Gomez 47 Yd Field Goal 24–9
- Q4 13:56ASUCameron Harpole 3 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–6
- Q3 1:06HOUConner Weigman 1 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)24–0
- Q3 10:10HOUTanner Koziol 7 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)17–0
- Q1 0:41HOUConner Weigman 1 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:29HOUEthan Sanchez 26 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ASU Elo 1638, HOU Elo 1478 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ASU -8.8 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#70 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #56 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #47 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →The series is level at 5–5 · Houston has won 3 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| HOU | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9 (#65) | CORE overall | +8.2 (#44) |
| -1 / +0 | offense / defense | +2 / -6 |
| 2.41 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 2.08 | allowed / drive | 2.22 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →