Mountain America StadiumConference gameClosing line: ASU -7.5 · HOU covered
Sun, Oct 26, 12:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 10 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 24 |
| ASU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 16 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ASU Elo 1638, HOU Elo 1478) plus home-field advantage. That projects ASU -8.8 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
HOU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Houston 24, Arizona State 16.
No — the model picked ASU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had ASU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 0 yards to the ASU01 fumbled by #1 C.Weigman at ASU01 forced by #95 J.Wodtly recovered by ASU #95 J.Wodtly at ASU01, End Of Play PENALTY ASU Offside (#4 M.Rowser). NO PLAY
End of 4th quarter.
(14:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 S.Leavitt pass complete deep left to #12 M.McClain caught at UH 12, for 36 yards to the UH 03 (#15 W.James), 1ST DOWN
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