Florida Atlantic vs. Rice: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsRICE
- Q4 3:19RICEChase Jenkins 2 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)27–21
- Q4 6:03FAUGarrison Smith 26 Yd Field Goal 27–14
- Q3 1:50FAUMichael Kirch 2 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)24–14
- Q3 4:44RICEDrayden Dickmann 46 Yd pass from Chase Jenkins (Enock Gota Kick)17–14
- Q2 4:36FAUGarrison Smith 36 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q1 6:57FAUAsaad Waseem 38 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)14–7
- Q1 11:23FAUMichael Kirch 30 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:34RICEQuinton Jackson 68 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassCaden Veltkamp 23/33, 290 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushXavier Terrell 20 CAR, 69 YDS
- RecEaston Messer 11 REC, 110 YDS
- PassChase Jenkins 12/17, 137 YDS, 1 TD
- RushQuinton Jackson 19 CAR, 128 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDrayden Dickmann 4 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFAU up 10 ~12 min left (4th qtr). Across 1,207 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:57FAU +19%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 38 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
- Q1 11:23FAU +15%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Michael Kirch for 30 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
- Q1 13:34RICE +15%
Quinton Jackson run for 68 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)
- Q4 12:22FAU +14%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 3 yds to the FAU 19
- Q4 1:04FAU +13%
Caden Veltkamp run for 2 yds to the FAU 42 for a 1ST down
- Q4 3:19RICE +13%
Chase Jenkins run for 2 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Rice?
Florida Atlantic 27, Rice 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked RICE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FAU | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| 393 | Total yards | 350 |
| 290 | Passing yards | 137 |
| 103 | Rushing yards | 213 |
| 20 | First downs | 18 |
| 8-14 | 3rd down | 10-16 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 23/33 | Comp/Att | 12/17 |
| 8.8 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-55 | Penalties | 4-54 |
| 28:46 | Possession | 31:14 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:23 FAU punt on 4th & 9 at RICE 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.27 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:19RICEChase Jenkins 2 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)27–21
- Q4 6:03FAUGarrison Smith 26 Yd Field Goal 27–14
- Q3 1:50FAUMichael Kirch 2 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)24–14
- Q3 4:44RICEDrayden Dickmann 46 Yd pass from Chase Jenkins (Enock Gota Kick)17–14
- Q2 4:36FAUGarrison Smith 36 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q1 6:57FAUAsaad Waseem 38 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)14–7
- Q1 11:23FAUMichael Kirch 30 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Garrison Smith Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:34RICEQuinton Jackson 68 Yd Run (Enock Gota Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RICE Elo 1291, FAU Elo 1201 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RICE -6 (67% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FAU | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| -13.1 (#103) | CORE overall | -26.8 (#132) |
| -1 / +12 | offense / defense | -20 / +7 |
| 2.19 | points / drive | 1.40 |
| 3.05 | allowed / drive | 3.09 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +12 | pass over expected | -24 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →