Southern Utah vs. Idaho State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Southern Utah1-1

0028

Idaho State0-1

▸0038

Final

Holt Arena

	1	2	3	4	T
SOUT	0	7	7	14	28
IDAH	14	10	7	7	38

SOUTTeam statsIDAH

485Total yards423

267Pass161

218Rush262

25First downs24

7-143rd down4-11

0Turnovers1

30:18Possession28:25

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:06SOUTShane Carr 2 Yd pass from Bronson Barron (Jayden Rogers Kick)28–38
• Q4 1:46IDAHChristian Fredericksen 20 Yd pass from Hunter Hays (Gabe Panikowski Kick)21–38
• Q4 12:24SOUTTarghee Lambson 1 Yd Run (Jayden Rogers Kick)21–31
• Q3 0:25IDAHDason Brooks 75 Yd Run (Gabe Panikowski Kick)14–31
• Q3 0:40SOUTJackson Berry 2 Yd Run (Jayden Rogers Kick)14–24
• Q2 0:10IDAHEric Johnson 18 Yd pass from Kobe Tracy (Gabe Panikowski Kick)7–24
• Q2 4:57IDAHGabe Panikowski 39 Yd Field Goal 7–17
• Q2 14:54SOUTGabe Nunez 19 Yd pass from Jackson Berry (Jayden Rogers Kick)7–14
• Q1 1:20IDAHHunter Hays 7 Yd Run (Gabe Panikowski Kick)0–14
• Q1 9:08IDAHHunter Hays 4 Yd Run (Gabe Panikowski Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

SOUT −2.5

Against the number

IDAH covered

line SOUT −2.5

What the numbers say

• SOUT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and IDAH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.1 vs 3rd & 5.9

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

IDAH 100%50%SOUT 100%

Kickoff157 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

IDAH (top)SOUT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: IDAH 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

SOUT −2.5

Closing total

58.5

Model line

—

Actual result

SOUT 28 – 38 IDAH

Leaders

Southern Utah

• PassJackson Berry 13/20, 177 YDS, 1 TD
• RushTarghee Lambson 26 CAR, 172 YDS, 1 TD
• RecShane Carr 7 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD

Idaho State

• PassKobe Tracy 14/22, 121 YDS, 1 TD
• RushDason Brooks 8 CAR, 136 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJeff Weimer 4 REC, 53 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

144

Points / snap

0.46

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

IDAH up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 840 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

97%

IDAH went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WKansas vs Missouri State48-17WOhio State vs Indiana23-3WStanford vs Hawai'i37-24WSouth Carolina vs North Carolina31-17WPenn State vs West Virginia38-15

Fourth downs

13 calls

SOUT gave up 0.4 points to the model on fourth down.SOUT 4/5 · IDAH 6/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Southern Utah vs. Idaho State?

Southern Utah 28, Idaho State 38.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (IDAH) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

SOUT

IDAH

46%

Success rate

54%

0.29

EPA / pass

0.06

0.32

EPA / rush

0.53

46%

Early-down success

56%

35%

Pass success

46%

55%

Rush success

62%

13%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

5%

Stuffed rush rate

9%

48%

Pass rate

49%

9.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.9

SOUT

9.1 yards to go on 3rd down

77 scrimmage snaps

IDAH

5.9 yards to go on 3rd down

67 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

SOUT		IDAH
485	Total yards	423
267	Passing yards	161
218	Rushing yards	262
25	First downs	24
7-14	3rd down	4-11
0-4	4th down	1-1
21/36	Comp/Att	18/28
7.4	Yards per pass	5.8
5.1	Yards per rush	7.9
0	Turnovers	1
9-104	Penalties	5-32
30:18	Possession	28:25

Fourth downs

13 calls

SOUT

4/5 with the model

−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

IDAH

6/6 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q1 5:53 SOUT go for it on 4th & 7 at IDAH 33. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.35 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

SOUT 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →IDAH 6/12 scoring drives

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1

IDAHTD9 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

SOUTDOWNS7 pl, 33 yds· own 34Q1

IDAHTD7 pl, 82 yds· own 33Q1

SOUTTD5 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q1

IDAHPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2

SOUTDOWNS7 pl, 24 yds· own 35Q2

IDAHFG10 pl, 37 yds· own 41Q2

SOUTPUNT4 pl, 25 yds· own 25Q2

IDAHTD10 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q2

SOUTEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 30Q2

IDAHPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 24Q3

SOUTDOWNS8 pl, 38 yds· own 34Q3

IDAHINT7 pl, 65 yds· own 28Q3

SOUTTD13 pl, 99 yds· own 0Q3

IDAHTD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

SOUTTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

IDAHPUNT6 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q4

SOUTPUNT5 pl, 2 yds· own 20Q4

IDAHPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 40Q4

SOUTDOWNS10 pl, 23 yds· own 15Q4

IDAHTD2 pl, 38 yds· opp 38Q4

SOUTTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

IDAHEND1 pl, -2 yds· opp 35Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:06SOUTShane Carr 2 Yd pass from Bronson Barron (Jayden Rogers Kick)28–38
• Q4 1:46IDAHChristian Fredericksen 20 Yd pass from Hunter Hays (Gabe Panikowski Kick)21–38
• Q4 12:24SOUTTarghee Lambson 1 Yd Run (Jayden Rogers Kick)21–31
• Q3 0:25IDAHDason Brooks 75 Yd Run (Gabe Panikowski Kick)14–31
• Q3 0:40SOUTJackson Berry 2 Yd Run (Jayden Rogers Kick)14–24
• Q2 0:10IDAHEric Johnson 18 Yd pass from Kobe Tracy (Gabe Panikowski Kick)7–24
• Q2 4:57IDAHGabe Panikowski 39 Yd Field Goal 7–17
• Q2 14:54SOUTGabe Nunez 19 Yd pass from Jackson Berry (Jayden Rogers Kick)7–14
• Q1 1:20IDAHHunter Hays 7 Yd Run (Gabe Panikowski Kick)0–14
• Q1 9:08IDAHHunter Hays 4 Yd Run (Gabe Panikowski Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →