UTEP vs. Florida International: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTEPTeam statsFIU
- Q4 5:24UTEPBuzz Flabiano 20 Yd Field Goal 27–14
- Q3 10:28FIUKeyone Jenkins 1 Yd Run (Chase Gabriel Kick)24–14
- Q2 1:03UTEPBuzz Flabiano 37 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q2 6:10FIUKejon Owens 11 Yd Run (Chase Gabriel Kick)21–7
- Q1 3:28UTEPKelly Akharaiyi 23 Yd pass from Cade McConnell (Buzz Flabiano Kick)21–0
- Q1 6:44UTEPKelly Akharaiyi 80 Yd pass from Cade McConnell (Buzz Flabiano Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:00UTEPDeion Hankins 1 Yd Run (Buzz Flabiano Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FIU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UTEP did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.9 vs 3rd & 6.9
- FIU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassCade McConnell 11/17, 262 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTorrance Burgess Jr. 20 CAR, 86 YDS
- RecKelly Akharaiyi 8 REC, 223 YDS, 2 TD
- PassKeyone Jenkins 12/24, 216 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKejon Owens 10 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKris Mitchell 4 REC, 86 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTEP up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,138 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:00UTEP +17%
Deion Hankins run for 1 yd for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)
- Q1 6:44UTEP +14%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 80 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)
- Q3 10:28FIU +11%
Keyone Jenkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Gabriel KICK)
- Q1 3:28UTEP +8%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 23 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)
- Q2 6:10FIU +8%
Kejon Owens run for 11 yds for a TD (Chase Gabriel KICK)
- Q4 10:52UTEP +5%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 17 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of UTEP vs. Florida International?
UTEP 27, Florida International 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTEP) was correct.
| UTEP | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 441 | Total yards | 363 |
| 302 | Passing yards | 272 |
| 139 | Rushing yards | 91 |
| 18 | First downs | 16 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 2-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 12/18 | Comp/Att | 15/30 |
| 16.8 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 5-57 |
| 32:32 | Possession | 27:28 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:14 UTEP field goal on 4th & 1 at FIU 16. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.92 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:24UTEPBuzz Flabiano 20 Yd Field Goal 27–14
- Q3 10:28FIUKeyone Jenkins 1 Yd Run (Chase Gabriel Kick)24–14
- Q2 1:03UTEPBuzz Flabiano 37 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q2 6:10FIUKejon Owens 11 Yd Run (Chase Gabriel Kick)21–7
- Q1 3:28UTEPKelly Akharaiyi 23 Yd pass from Cade McConnell (Buzz Flabiano Kick)21–0
- Q1 6:44UTEPKelly Akharaiyi 80 Yd pass from Cade McConnell (Buzz Flabiano Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:00UTEPDeion Hankins 1 Yd Run (Buzz Flabiano Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FIU Elo 1063, UTEP Elo 1178 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FIU +2.2 (45% to win) — 4.2 points clear of UTEP's market line of -2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UTEP | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.3 (#109) | CORE overall | -20.9 (#127) |
| -8 / +7 | offense / defense | -12 / +9 |
| 1.58 | points / drive | 1.35 |
| 2.73 | allowed / drive | 2.63 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 39% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →