Furman vs. The Citadel: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Furman0-1
▸
The Citadel
Final
Johnson Hagood StadiumConference game
FURMTeam statsTHE
274Total yards257
246Pass103
28Rush154
17First downs16
5-123rd down6-20
1Turnovers1
22:14Possession37:46
- Q4 1:01FURMJackson Pryor 6 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (Ian Williams Kick)17–16
- Q4 5:39FURMBen Ferguson 10 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (Ian Williams Kick)10–16
- Q4 8:27THE Ben Barnes 44 Yd Field Goal 3–16
- Q3 0:52FURMIan Williams 26 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q3 5:30THE Ben Barnes 30 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 2:34THE Dervon Pesnell 48 Yd pass from Johnathan Bennett (Ben Barnes Kick)0–10
- Q1 8:39THE Ben Barnes 48 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
Market line
FURM −12.5
Against the number
THE covered
line FURM −12.5
Kickoff152 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
THE (top)FURM (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: THE 0%
Closing line
FURM −12.5
Closing total
45.5
Model line
—
Actual result
FURM 17 – 16 THE
Furman
- PassTrey Hedden 23/33, 246 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMyion Hicks 7 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecBen Ferguson 5 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
The Citadel
- PassJohnathan Bennett 11/23, 103 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJohnathan Bennett 16 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecDervon Pesnell 4 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
26.4sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
134
Points / snap
0.25
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTHE up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,138 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
THE went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Furman vs. The Citadel?
Furman 17, The Citadel 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked THE , which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
FURM
THE
43%
Success rate
33%
0.26
EPA / pass
-0.11
-0.02
EPA / rush
-0.05
44%
Early-down success
30%
43%
Pass success
31%
44%
Rush success
34%
7%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
7%
17%
Stuffed rush rate
26%
69%
Pass rate
34%
7.3
Avg 3rd-down distance
7.5
FURM
7.3 yards to go on 3rd down
58 scrimmage snaps
THE
7.5 yards to go on 3rd down
76 scrimmage snaps
| FURM | THE | |
|---|---|---|
| 274 | Total yards | 257 |
| 246 | Passing yards | 103 |
| 28 | Rushing yards | 154 |
| 17 | First downs | 16 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 6-20 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 23/33 | Comp/Att | 11/23 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 4.5 |
| 1.2 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 22:14 | Possession | 37:46 |
FURM
5/7 with the model
−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob
THE
7/10 with the model
−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q4 14:14 THE punt on 4th & 1 at THE 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishFURM 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →THE 4/11 scoring drives
THE FG12 pl, 45 yds· own 25Q1
FURMPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q1
THE TD8 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q1
FURMPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q1
FURMUncateg1 pl, 0 yds· own 2Q2
THE DOWNS14 pl, 62 yds· own 18Q2
FURMPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 20Q2
THE PUNT9 pl, 17 yds· own 44Q2
FURMPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 13Q2
THE PUNT3 pl, -1 yds· opp 37Q2
FURMPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3
THE FG17 pl, 69 yds· own 19Q3
FURMFG12 pl, 67 yds· own 25Q3
THE PUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q3
FURMPUNT6 pl, 11 yds· own 20Q4
THE PUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q4
THE FG4 pl, 5 yds· opp 31Q4
FURMTD10 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q4
THE PUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q4
FURMTD11 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q4
THE INT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q4
- Q4 1:01FURMJackson Pryor 6 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (Ian Williams Kick)17–16
- Q4 5:39FURMBen Ferguson 10 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (Ian Williams Kick)10–16
- Q4 8:27THE Ben Barnes 44 Yd Field Goal 3–16
- Q3 0:52FURMIan Williams 26 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q3 5:30THE Ben Barnes 30 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 2:34THE Dervon Pesnell 48 Yd pass from Johnathan Bennett (Ben Barnes Kick)0–10
- Q1 8:39THE Ben Barnes 48 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →