Delaware vs. Sam Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
DELTeam statsSHSU
- Q4 2:36DELMax Patterson 26 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)23–26
- Q4 8:47DELViron Ellison Jr. 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–26
- Q4 11:58SHSUChristian Pavon 48 Yd Field Goal 10–26
- Q3 3:52SHSUChristian Pavon 23 Yd Field Goal 10–23
- Q3 8:34SHSULandan Brown 62 Yd Run (Christian Pavon Kick)10–20
- Q3 11:22SHSUChristian Pavon 48 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 0:00SHSUChristian Pavon 33 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 2:35SHSULandan Brown 2 Yd Run (Christian Pavon Kick)10–7
- Q2 9:20DELNate Reed 37 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 2:14DELNick Minicucci 7 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SHSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassNick Minicucci 24/36, 338 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushViron Ellison Jr. 19 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSean Wilson 9 REC, 162 YDS
- PassLandyn Locke 16/38, 213 YDS
- RushLandan Brown 10 CAR, 109 YDS, 2 TD
- RecChris Reed 2 REC, 66 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSHSU up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:36DEL +35%
Max Patterson 26 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)
- Q3 8:34SHSU +27%
Landan Brown 62 Yd Run (Christian Pavon Kick)
- Q4 0:21SHSU +22%
#91 N.Reed field goal attempt from 36 yards NO GOOD
- Q3 11:22SHSU +20%
Christian Pavon 48 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 0:21SHSU +14%
Kneel down by #8 L.Locke at SHSU18 for loss of 2 yards
- Q2 2:35SHSU +13%
Landan Brown 2 Yd Run (Christian Pavon Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Delaware vs. Sam Houston?
Delaware 23, Sam Houston 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked DEL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| DEL | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 433 | Total yards | 352 |
| 338 | Passing yards | 213 |
| 95 | Rushing yards | 139 |
| 25 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 24/36 | Comp/Att | 16/39 |
| 9.4 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 2.4 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-81 | Penalties | 8-78 |
| 32:06 | Possession | 27:54 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:50 SHSU punt on 4th & 5 at DEL 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.55 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:36DELMax Patterson 26 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)23–26
- Q4 8:47DELViron Ellison Jr. 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–26
- Q4 11:58SHSUChristian Pavon 48 Yd Field Goal 10–26
- Q3 3:52SHSUChristian Pavon 23 Yd Field Goal 10–23
- Q3 8:34SHSULandan Brown 62 Yd Run (Christian Pavon Kick)10–20
- Q3 11:22SHSUChristian Pavon 48 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 0:00SHSUChristian Pavon 33 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 2:35SHSULandan Brown 2 Yd Run (Christian Pavon Kick)10–7
- Q2 9:20DELNate Reed 37 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 2:14DELNick Minicucci 7 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SHSU Elo 1072, DEL Elo 1386 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects SHSU +12.6 (21% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#77 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #29 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| DEL | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.0 (#107) | CORE overall | -30.3 (#134) |
| -5 / +10 | offense / defense | -15 / +15 |
| 2.26 | points / drive | 1.26 |
| 2.63 | allowed / drive | 2.93 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →