Delaware vs. Jacksonville State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
DELTeam statsJXST
- Q4 2:52DELViron Ellison Jr. 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)25–38
- Q4 9:25DELViron Ellison Jr. 2 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)19–38
- Q4 11:57JXSTGarrison Rippa 52 Yd Field Goal 12–38
- Q3 1:41DELMax Patterson 21 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–35
- Q3 3:20JXSTCam Cook 2 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)6–35
- Q3 8:44JXSTCam Cook 1 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)6–28
- Q2 2:23DELViron Ellison Jr. 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–21
- Q2 8:16JXSTBrock Rechsteiner 23 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–21
- Q2 10:37JXSTCaleb Nix 45 Yd Fumble Return (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:27JXSTCam Cook 6 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassNick Minicucci 32/50, 422 YDS, 1 TD
- RushViron Ellison Jr. 8 CAR, 15 YDS, 3 TD
- RecKyre Duplessis 5 REC, 78 YDS
- PassCaden Creel 14/21, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCam Cook 18 CAR, 117 YDS, 3 TD
- RecBrock Rechsteiner 3 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsJXST up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:27JXST +16%
Cam Cook run for 6 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
- Q2 10:37JXST +14%
N. Minicucci pass to J. Thaw for 2 yds, J. Thaw fumbled, returned 45 yds by Caleb Nix for a TD (G. Rippa KICK)
- Q2 8:16JXST +6%
Caden Creel pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 23 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
- Q2 2:23DEL +5%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
FAQ
What was the final score of Delaware vs. Jacksonville State?
Delaware 25, Jacksonville State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
| DEL | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 456 | Total yards | 388 |
| 422 | Passing yards | 133 |
| 34 | Rushing yards | 255 |
| 22 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 1-5 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 32/50 | Comp/Att | 16/24 |
| 8.4 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 1.5 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-81 | Penalties | 6-60 |
| 27:38 | Possession | 32:22 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:16 DEL go for it on 4th & 9 at DEL 35. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:52DELViron Ellison Jr. 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)25–38
- Q4 9:25DELViron Ellison Jr. 2 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)19–38
- Q4 11:57JXSTGarrison Rippa 52 Yd Field Goal 12–38
- Q3 1:41DELMax Patterson 21 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–35
- Q3 3:20JXSTCam Cook 2 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)6–35
- Q3 8:44JXSTCam Cook 1 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)6–28
- Q2 2:23DELViron Ellison Jr. 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–21
- Q2 8:16JXSTBrock Rechsteiner 23 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–21
- Q2 10:37JXSTCaleb Nix 45 Yd Fumble Return (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:27JXSTCam Cook 6 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JXST Elo 1517, DEL Elo 1491 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects JXST -3.4 (60% to win) — 6.4 points clear of JXST's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| DEL | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.0 (#107) | CORE overall | -10.7 (#99) |
| -5 / +10 | offense / defense | -4 / +7 |
| 2.26 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 2.63 | allowed / drive | 2.19 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →