AmFirst StadiumConference gameClosing line: DEL +-3 · JXST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEL | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 25 |
| JXST | 7 | 14 | 14 | 3 | 38 |
Team stats
DELthis game · better side highlightedJXST
456
Total yards
388422
Passing yards
13334
Rushing yards
25522
First downs
244-14 · 29%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
JXST 1517
DEL 1491
Projected spread
JXST -3.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
JXST
60% to win
Market spread
JXST +3
sportsbook line
Model edge
JXST
6.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
60%
JXST · market 43%
Our model blends Elo ratings (JXST Elo 1517, DEL Elo 1491) plus home-field advantage. That projects JXST -3.4 (60% to win) — 6.4 points of value on JXST versus the market line of +3.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
JXST (top)DEL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: JXST 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- JXST pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. DEL pass defense (0.29 allowed) — edge DEL.
- DEL rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. JXST rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge JXST.
- DEL pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. JXST pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge DEL.
Drive-by-drive
DEL 5/14 scoring drives← own end zone →JXST 5/13 scoring drives
DELPUNT6 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1
JXSTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 32Q1
DELFUM1 pl, 21 yds· own 17Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
JXST up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
JXST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Delaware vs. Jacksonville State?
Delaware 25, Jacksonville State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had JXST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.