Colorado State vs. New Mexico: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CSUTeam statsUNM
- Q4 5:09CSULloyd Avant 41 Yd pass from Darius Curry (Isaiah Hankins Kick)17–20
- Q4 8:27UNMLuke Drzewiecki 35 Yd Field Goal 10–20
- Q4 10:32UNMJ. Layne run for 12 yds, for a TD (L. Drzewiecki KICK)10–17
- Q3 0:18CSUIsaiah Hankins 30 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q3 7:32CSURocky Beers 3 Yd pass from Darius Curry (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–10
- Q2 0:01UNMLuke Drzewiecki 45 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q2 6:17UNMD.J. McKinney 1 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDarius Curry 26/34, 248 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushLloyd Avant 12 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecRocky Beers 7 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJack Layne 13/25, 226 YDS
- RushDJ McKinney 17 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKeagan Johnson 5 REC, 65 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 5:09CSU +27%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Curry pass complete short right to #25 L.Avant caught at UNM47, for 41 yards to the UNM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 2:02UNM +25%
Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass incomplete deep middle to #6 K.Johnson thrown to CSU00 broken up by #4 J.Rogers PENALTY CSU Pass Interference (#4 J.Rogers) 15 yards from CSU34…
- Q4 10:32UNM +24%
Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush left for 12 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 7:32CSU +17%
Shotgun #3 D.Curry pass complete short left to #81 R.Beers caught at UNM01, for 3 yards to the UNM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 6:17UNM +15%
Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 11:56UNM +13%
Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short left to #6 K.Johnson caught at CSU24, for 8 yards to the CSU13 (#39 D.Gill)
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado State vs. New Mexico?
Colorado State 17, New Mexico 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNM) was correct.
| CSU | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| 299 | Total yards | 348 |
| 286 | Passing yards | 226 |
| 13 | Rushing yards | 122 |
| 19 | First downs | 15 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 34/46 | Comp/Att | 13/25 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 0.5 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 6-68 |
| 32:30 | Possession | 27:30 |
Costliest call
Q1 9:04 CSU punt on 4th & 17 at UNM 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:09CSULloyd Avant 41 Yd pass from Darius Curry (Isaiah Hankins Kick)17–20
- Q4 8:27UNMLuke Drzewiecki 35 Yd Field Goal 10–20
- Q4 10:32UNMJ. Layne run for 12 yds, for a TD (L. Drzewiecki KICK)10–17
- Q3 0:18CSUIsaiah Hankins 30 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q3 7:32CSURocky Beers 3 Yd pass from Darius Curry (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–10
- Q2 0:01UNMLuke Drzewiecki 45 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q2 6:17UNMD.J. McKinney 1 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNM Elo 1460, CSU Elo 1221 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNM -12 (79% to win) — 3.5 points clear of CSU's market line of -15.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesColorado State leads 45–26 · 54% have been one-possession games
| CSU | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| -19.4 (#123) | CORE overall | +0.5 (#63) |
| -8 / +12 | offense / defense | -2 / -3 |
| 1.58 | points / drive | 2.50 |
| 2.91 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →