University Stadium (NM)Conference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 17 |
| UNM | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UNM 1460
CSU 1221
Projected spread
UNM -12
incl. home edge
Model pick
UNM
81% to win
Market spread
UNM -15.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
CSU
3.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
81%
UNM · market 70%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UNM Elo 1460, CSU Elo 1221) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNM -12 (81% to win) — 3.5 points of value on CSU versus the market line of -15.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UNM (top)CSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UNM 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- UNM pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. CSU pass defense (0.38 allowed) — edge CSU.
- CSU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. UNM rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge CSU.
- CSU pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. UNM pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge UNM.
Drive-by-drive
CSU 3/14 scoring drives← own end zone →UNM 4/14 scoring drives
UNMPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1
CSUPUNT8 pl, 38 yds· own 26Q1
UNMPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 20Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
UNM win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado State vs. New Mexico?
Colorado State 17, New Mexico 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNM) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had UNM pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.