DJ McKinney

RB·New Mexico·2025

DJ McKinney is a Pass-Catching Back for New Mexico. DJ's 2025 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 134 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So DJ McKinney's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

464 Rush yards7 Rush TD111 Carries4.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

15 Receptions161 Rec yards0 Rec TD10.7 Yards/rec

Returns

3 Kick returns46 KR yards0 KR TD5 Punt returns73 PR yards1 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency13
Volume45
Explosiveness24
Consistency33
Receiving71

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)13th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency33th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.12 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.51 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Michigan (SP+ 12).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Michigan	L17-34	12.4	2	5	2.5	0	1	1	0	0.51
2	vsIdaho State	W32-22	—	7	45	6.4	0	1	7	0	0.28
3	@UCLA	W35-10	-8.7	21	89	4.2	1	1	20	0	0.31
5	vsNew Mexico State	W38-20	-15.5	11	36	3.3	0	2	10	0	-0.01
6	@San José State	L28-35	-14.3	4	11	2.8	0	—	—	—	-0.39
7	@Boise State	L25-41	3.1	3	15	5.0	0	—	—	—	-0.33
8	vsNevada	W24-22	-13.4	8	39	4.9	2	3	43	0	0.31
9	vsUtah State	W33-14	-3.1	11	53	4.8	1	1	11	0	0.45
10	@UNLV	W40-35	4.3	7	20	2.9	1	1	0	0	-0.17
12	vsColorado State	W20-17	-15.6	17	52	3.1	1	2	57	0	0.27
13	@Air Force	W20-3	-3.2	14	43	3.1	0	1	6	0	-0.01
14	vsSan Diego State	W23-17	6.7	4	46	11.5	1	1	1	0	0.36
20	vsMinnesota	L17-20	1.5	2	10	5.0	0	1	5	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

15.8%

Passing plays

6.2%

Rushing plays

24.9%

Standard downs

18.1%

Passing downs

10.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.05
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / 0.14

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).