#9Lloyd Avant

RB·Colorado State·2025

Lloyd Avant is a Pass-Catching Back for Colorado State. Lloyd's 2025 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 111 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Lloyd Avant's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

417 Rush yards5 Rush TD90 Carries4.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

24 Receptions261 Rec yards1 Rec TD10.9 Yards/rec

Returns

11 Kick returns268 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency8
Volume43
Explosiveness32
Consistency24
Receiving84

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency24th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.75 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Hawai'i (SP+ 2).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Washington	L21-38	18.4	4	12	3.0	0	—	—	—	-0.12
2	vsNorthern Colorado	W21-17	—	11	68	6.2	2	—	—	—	0.26
4	vsUTSA	L16-17	3.7	10	96	9.6	0	2	1	0	0.23
5	vsWashington State	L3-20	3.8	5	33	6.6	0	4	43	0	0.69
6	@San Diego State	L24-45	6.7	3	17	5.7	0	1	1	0	-0.24
7	vsFresno State	W49-21	1.8	16	52	3.3	1	1	4	0	0.08
8	vsHawai'i	L19-31	1.7	8	50	6.3	0	—	—	—	0.75
9	@Wyoming	L0-28	-11.3	4	14	3.5	0	—	—	—	0.12
11	vsUNLV	L10-42	4.3	5	14	2.8	0	1	5	0	0.00
12	@New Mexico	L17-20	0.9	12	36	3.0	0	2	44	1	-0.36
13	@Boise State	L21-49	3.1	9	14	1.6	1	5	28	0	-0.25
14	vsAir Force	L21-42	-3.2	3	11	3.7	1	8	135	0	0.47

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

15.2%

Passing plays

7.0%

Rushing plays

26.1%

Standard downs

16.3%

Passing downs

13.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.04
Passing downs: 0.41
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / 0.10

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).