Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)Conference gameClosing line: CLEM +-14 · CLEM covered
Sat, Oct 11, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLEM | 10 | 24 | 0 | 7 | 41 |
| BC | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BC Elo 1349, CLEM Elo 1688) plus home-field advantage. That projects BC +11.2 (20% to win) — 2.8 points of value on BC versus the market line of +14.
CLEM up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Clemson 41, Boston College 10.
Yes — the model's pick (CLEM) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had CLEM pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Shaker Reisig pass intercepted Ricardo Jones return for no gain to the CLEM 20
Christopher Vizzina pass intercepted Max Tucker return for no gain to the BC 20
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Josh Sapp for 32 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST down
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →