vs USC · Wk 3Win prob 6%Model +21.5Schedule & Results
Team Leaders
AJ SuracePassing307 yds · 4 TD · 4 INT
Antwan RaymondRushing176 yds · 0 TD · 4.3 avg
KJ DuffReceiving17 rec · 333 yds · 5 TD
Chris JoinesTackles12 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Rutgers
All news →Half of Rutgers's drives died in three plays
William Watson III had a hand in four of Massachusetts's six explosive plays
Rutgers Kept KJ Duff and Rebuilt Almost Everything Else
Roster · 134 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sean Ashenfelder | QB | SO | 6'1" | 205 | St. Johns, FL |
| 10 | AJ Surace | QB | JR | 6'2" | 210 | Pennington, NJ |
| 12 | Dylan Lonergan | QB | SR | 6'2" | 210 | Snellville, GA |
| 15 | Rocco Rainone | QB | JR | 6'0" | 200 | Glen Cove, NY |
| 17 | Xavier Stearn | QB | FR | 6'6" | 220 | Ambler, PA |
| 3 | Antwan Raymond | RB | JR | 5'11" | 205 | Montreal, PQ |
| 9 | Clay Thevenin | RB | SR | 5'8" | 195 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 20 | Ja'shon Benjamin | RB | SR | 5'9" | 205 | Pahokee, FL |
| 22 | Michael Dukes III | RB | FR | 6'0" | 215 | Eastpointe, MI |
| 23 | Edd Guerrier | RB | JR | 5'8" | 195 | Port Charlotte, FL |
| 26 | Terrell Mitchell | RB | SO | 5'8" | 200 | Somerville, NJ |
| 28 | Xavier Williams | RB | SO | 5'8" | 205 | West Orange, NJ |
| 32 | Aiden Gibson | RB | FR | 6'2" | 215 | Woodruff, SC |
| 0 | Dyzier Carter | WR | FR | 5'11" | 185 | Louisa, VA |
| 1 | Famah Toure | WR | SR | 6'3" | 220 | Pleasantville, NJ |
| 2 | Ben Black III | WR | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Charlotte, NC |
| 4 | Jourdin Houston | WR | SO | 6'1" | 200 | Bronx, NY |
| 5 | Vernon Allen III | WR | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Baltimore, MD |
| 7 | Dylan Braithwaite | WR | SR | 5'9" | 180 | Valley Stream, NY |
| 8 | KJ Duff | WR | JR | 6'6" | 225 | Riverhead, NY |
| 13 | Elias Coke | WR | FR | 6'3" | 220 | Harrisburg, PA |
| 14 | Sah'nye Degraffenreidt | WR | SO | 6'1" | 210 | Atlantic City, NJ |
| 18 | Quentin Redding | WR | SR | 5'6" | 165 | Menomonee Falls, WI |
| 25 | Trent Osborn | WR | JR | 6'3" | 205 | Mount Laurel, NJ |
| 39 | Salomon Ealey | WR | SO | 5'8" | 175 | Piscataway, NJ |
| 80 | Michael Thomas III | WR | SO | 5'11" | 205 | Barnegat, NJ |
| 83 | Dino Kaliakmanis | WR | SR | 6'1" | 200 | Antioch, IL |
| 87 | Justice Hurt | WR | SR | 6'1" | 190 | San Antonio, TX |
| 11 | Logan Blake | TE | SR | 6'6" | 265 | Frenchtown, NJ |
| 24 | Ben Rothhaar | TE | SO | 6'3" | 240 | Norwalk, OH |
| 81 | DJ Howerton | TE | FR | 6'5" | 245 | Kernersville, NC |
| 82 | Jackson Gister | TE | JR | 6'6" | 250 | Baltimore, MD |
| 84 | Ryan Bayoumy | TE | SO | 6'2" | 235 | Monroe Township, NJ |
| 85 | Kam Anthony | TE | JR | 6'5" | 255 | Fishers, IN |
| 88 | Mike Higgins | TE | SR | 6'5" | 255 | Ho-Ho-Kus, NJ |
| 89 | Brady Owens | TE | FR | 6'6" | 240 | Arlington, VA |
| 51 | Raymond Giacobbe | OL | JR | 6'4" | 285 | Rahway, NJ |
| 53 | Hank Zilinskas | OL | SR | 6'3" | 305 | Englewood, CO |
| 54 | Everett Small | OL | JR | 6'5" | 305 | Hamilton, ON |
| 55 | Nick Oliveira | OL | SR | 6'4" | 320 | Mullica Hill, NJ |
| 56 | Tyler Needham | OL | SR | 6'4" | 305 | Newton, PA |
| 57 | Isaiah Cook | OL | SR | 6'2" | 310 | Willingboro, NJ |
| 58 | Joseph Lakatos | OL | JR | 6'1" | 280 | South River, NJ |
| 59 | James Cocozzo | OL | FR | 6'4" | 300 | Stillwater, NY |
| 60 | Logan Anthony | OL | FR | 6'4" | 325 | Lehighton, PA |
| 61 | Emir Stinette | OL | SR | 6'5" | 335 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 62 | Tyler Duell | OL | FR | 6'7" | 315 | West Chester, PA |
| 63 | Ian Asaeli Ngaue-Stephenson | OL | FR | 6'3" | 325 | Mesa, AZ |
| 66 | Donovan Johnson | OL | FR | 6'3" | 315 | Fayetteville, NC |
| 67 | Chris Vigna | OL | SO | 6'5" | 310 | Glen Ridge, NJ |
| 68 | Ryder Langsdale | OL | SR | 6'7" | 305 | Ridgewood, NJ |
| 69 | Kwabena Asamoah | OL | SR | 6'2" | 310 | Pickerington, OH |
| 70 | Cameron Greene | OL | FR | 6'6" | 315 | Sicklerville, NJ |
| 71 | Jared Smith | OL | FR | 6'5" | 325 | Stockbridge, GA |
| 72 | Jayden Elijah | OL | SO | 6'6" | 305 | Matawan, NJ |
| 73 | Terrence Salami | OL | SR | 6'2" | 310 | Willingboro, NJ |
| 74 | Moshood Giwa | OL | SR | 6'6" | 320 | Brooklyn, NY |
| 75 | Raynor Andrews | OL | JR | 6'6" | 320 | Nassau |
| 76 | Dantae Chin | OL | SR | 6'4" | 320 | Weston, FL |
| 77 | Kenny Jones | OL | JR | 6'4" | 315 | Delran, NJ |
| 78 | Miron Gurman | OL | SO | 6'6" | 290 | Rochester, NY |
| 79 | Justin Cesaire | OL | SR | 6'4" | 315 | Orange, NJ |
| 0 | Doug Blue-Eli | DL | SR | 6'3" | 300 | Paulsboro, NJ |
| 8 | Sekou Kromah | DL | SR | 6'3" | 275 | East Orange, NJ |
| 11 | Malachi Davis | DL | SR | 6'4" | 255 | Holt, MI |
| 14 | RJ Johnson Jr. | DL | SO | 6'4" | 255 | Bear, DE |
| 30 | Elijah King | DL | JR | 6'5" | 260 | Gahanna, OH |
| 42 | DJ Allen | DL | SR | 6'7" | 275 | Leo, IN |
| 48 | Raedyn Bruens | DL | SO | 6'5" | 280 | Martinsville, IL |
| 55 | Zaire Angoy | DL | SR | 6'3" | 300 | Irvington, NJ |
| 56 | Anthony Morales | DL | JR | 6'0" | 250 | Whippany, NJ |
| 87 | Monte Keener | DL | JR | 6'6" | 245 | Linden, MI |
| 88 | Jyon Simon | DL | SO | 6'1" | 280 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 90 | Farell Gnago | DL | JR | 6'4" | 270 | Montreal, PQ |
| 91 | Jaedin Lee | DL | JR | 6'1" | 305 | Chester, VA |
| 92 | Jermaine Polk | DL | FR | 6'2" | 295 | Toledo, OH |
| 93 | Reece Beck | DL | FR | 6'6" | 255 | Ponte Vedra Beach, FL |
| 94 | J'Dan Burnett | DL | SR | 6'1" | 255 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 95 | Joshua Blackston | DL | SO | 6'3" | 300 | Baltimore, MD |
| 96 | Keshon Griffin | DL | SR | 6'4" | 300 | Sicklerville, NJ |
| 97 | Rinaldo Callaway III | DL | FR | 6'4" | 230 | Macon, GA |
| 98 | Braxton Kyle | DL | SO | 6'3" | 300 | Suwanee, GA |
| 99 | Rondo Porter | DL | SR | 6'0" | 295 | Columbia, SC |
| 2 | Moses Walker | LB | SR | 6'2" | 230 | Staten Island, NY |
| 6 | Abram Wright | LB | SR | 6'1" | 220 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 10 | Ty Morris | LB | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Houston, TX |
| 13 | DJ McClary | LB | SO | 6'1" | 235 | Jersey City, NJ |
| 17 | MJ Johnson | LB | JR | 6'3" | 230 | Detroit, MI |
| 23 | Isaiah Deloatch | LB | SO | 6'0" | 225 | Durham, NC |
| 33 | John Insinga | LB | SO | 6'1" | 230 | Greenwich, CT |
| 36 | Kamar Archie | LB | SO | 6'1" | 235 | Ewing, NJ |
| 38 | Joey Kopec | LB | FR | 6'2" | 230 | Northfield, OH |
| 41 | Sean Allison | LB | SR | 6'0" | 235 | Hinsdale, IL |
| 47 | Tanner Raymond | LB | FR | 6'3" | 235 | Windsor, CT |
| 50 | Joe Nwachukwu | LB | JR | 6'0" | 230 | Somerset, NJ |
| 54 | Alex Szczesniak | LB | SR | 6'1" | 225 | Orland Park, IL |
| 59 | Liam Gilmore | LB | JR | 6'4" | 230 | Medford, NJ |
| 1 | Kaj Sanders | DB | JR | 6'1" | 200 | Newark, NJ |
| 3 | Latrell Noel | DB | SO | 6'3" | 210 | Naples, FL |
| 4 | Kevyn Humes | DB | JR | 5'11" | 185 | Bowie, MD |
| 5 | Bradlee Jones | DB | SR | 6'0" | 185 | Greenwood, SC |
| 7 | Kevin Levy | DB | JR | 6'0" | 190 | West Palm Beach, FL |
| 9 | DK Gilley | DB | JR | 6'2" | 205 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 12 | Zahmir Dawud | DB | SR | 5'11" | 185 | North Brunswick, NJ |
| 15 | Zilan Williams | DB | SR | 6'1" | 195 | Martinsburg, WV |
| 16 | Jesse Ofurie | DB | SR | 6'2" | 215 | Salem, MA |
| 18 | Messiah Tilson | DB | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Rockford, IL |
| 19 | Davoun Fuse | DB | SR | 6'4" | 220 | Washington, PA |
| 20 | Chris Joines | DB | SR | 6'2" | 200 | Winston-Salem, NC |
| 21 | Devonte Anderson | DB | FR | 6'1" | 195 | Orlando, FL |
| 22 | Michael Clayton | DB | SO | 6'0" | 190 | Warner Robins, GA |
| 24 | Steven Murray | DB | SO | 6'0" | 185 | Gibsonville, NC |
| 25 | JJ Conyers | DB | FR | 6'2" | 180 | St. Petersburg, FL |
| 26 | Isaiah Crumpler | DB | JR | 6'0" | 205 | Simpson, NC |
| 27 | Sage Clawges | DB | SR | 6'4" | 200 | Westover, WV |
| 28 | Cannon Marshall | DB | SO | 6'0" | 185 | Rolesville, NC |
| 29 | Sebastian Jusma | DB | SR | 6'1" | 200 | Teaneck, NJ |
| 31 | Sebastian Cruz | DB | FR | 5'11" | 185 | Fleming Island, FL |
| 32 | Brandon Murray | DB | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Haymarket, VA |
| 34 | Noah Shaw | DB | JR | 6'1" | 195 | Asheville, NC |
| 35 | Mikey Munn | DB | JR | 6'1" | 205 | Windsor, CO |
| 37 | RJ Wortman | DB | FR | 6'3" | 215 | Avenel, NJ |
| 39 | Tyler Childress | DB | SR | 6'2" | 205 | Huntingtown, MD |
| 43 | Robbie Engelberg | DB | SR | 5'11" | 195 | Alexandria, VA |
| 44 | Tariq Hayer | DB | SO | 6'0" | 195 | PG County, MD |
| 45 | Shawn Purcell | DB | SR | 6'0" | 185 | Manville, NJ |
| 21 | Riley McCann | PK | SR | 6'3" | 210 | Gillette, NJ |
| 29 | Dane Pizzaro | PK | JR | 6'2" | 200 | Bensalem, PA |
| 44 | Jai Patel | PK | SR | 5'9" | 180 | Monmouth Junction, NJ |
| 93 | Jack Scullion | PK | JR | 6'4" | 205 | Magherafelt |
| 94 | Jakob Anderson | P | JR | 6'2" | 195 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 58 | Michael O'Connor | LS | SR | 6'1" | 215 | Middletown, NJ |
| 65 | Talan Shields | LS | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Tarpon Springs, FL |
| 68 | Matthew Murri | LS | SR | 6'0" | 200 | Fair Lawn, NJ |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Rutgers runs it: Greg Schiano's offenses have been run-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 29th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 133rd at defending the run, and they are 128th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −24.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Rutgers has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#29projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#32projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#35projected
Projected soft spots
- Defenserunning it#133projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#128projected
- Defensefirst and second down#125projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.76#99
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.79 / 0.47
- Power / stuff (off)
- 41.7% / 22.4%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 10.9%#121
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 7.0% / 3.9%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.14#119 | 0.28#60 | 0.31#106 |
| Defense | -0.06#65 | 0.47#124 | 0.38#73 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2045th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.3315th
- Offense success rate40%31st
- Defense success rate allowed52%9th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs41%22nd
- Offense success — passing downs37%61st
- Defense success allowed — standard downs56%7th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs41%15th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.693rd
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.078th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.276th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.591st
Trenches
- Offense line yards1.97th
- Defense line yards allowed3.412th
- Offense highlight yards0.007th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.6553rd
- Offense power success0.6029th
- Defense power success allowed0.7149th
- Offense stuff rate0.2516th
- Defense stuff rate0.1736th
Third down
- Third down conversion27%15th
- Third down distance faced7.331st
- Third down conversion allowed36%50th
- Third down distance forced8.574th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.1910th
- Net success rate — second half-0.0135th
Drives
- Points per drive1.844th
- Points per drive allowed3.722nd
- Average starting field position2426th
- Opponent starting field position414th
- Available yards gained41%30th
- Available yards allowed58%31st
- Scoring opportunities per drive58%12th
- Scoring opportunities allowed80%51st
- Points per scoring opportunity3.063rd
- Points allowed per opportunity4.612th
- Three-and-out rate50%12th
- Three-and-outs forced20%38th
Roster
- Returning usage41%48th
- Returning EPA16566th
- Team talent composite70966th
- Recruiting class rank36.074th
- Recruiting class points22174th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.564 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
0-2 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 12 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 65.9%
- Expected, given the spots
- 52.2%
- Over expected
- +13.7
- Fourth down vs peers
- +13
- Fourth down vs the model
- +25
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Rutgers is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Rutgers in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0% | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| 2025 | 5-7 | 2-7 | 42% | 5.4 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 7-6 | 4-5 | 54% | 6.8 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 7-6 | 3-6 | 54% | 6.3 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 4-8 | 1-8 | 33% | 4.9 | -0.9 |
| 2021 | 5-8 | 2-7 | 38% | 4.1 | +0.9 |
| 2020 | 3-6 | 3-6 | 33% | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 2-10 | 0-9 | 17% | 1.7 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 1-11 | 0-9 | 8% | 1.2 | -0.2 |
| 2017 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 33% | 3.1 | +0.9 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 2.8-9.2.
down 2.2 points since preseason — lost 21-37 to Massachusetts against an expected margin of +38, so −54.0 against the number.
- The Big Ten takes 3.19 bids in an average season, and four or more in 37%.
Rutgers’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk3vs USC0.1
- wk9vs Michigan0.1
- wk11vs Nebraska0.1
- wk7at Maryland0.1
- wk8at Northwestern0.1
- wk10at Wisconsin0.1
Who to root for
Games Rutgers is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk2Oklahoma State over Oregon0.1
- wk12Arkansas over Texas0.1
- wk13Georgia Tech over Georgia0.0
- wk7Arizona State over Texas Tech0.0
- wk12SMU over Notre Dame0.0
- wk9Mississippi State over Texas0.0
Big Ten
0-0 in league play, projected 1.5-7.518 of 18 by title oddsThe Big Ten sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 50% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big Ten race →
If not the playoff, then
Rutgers is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.1% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- LA Bowl1.1%
- GameAbove Sports Bowl0.9%
- Xbox Bowl0.7%
- Rate Bowl0.5%
- Salute to Veterans Bowl0.3%
- Pinstripe Bowl0.3%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 7 have sent Rutgers a player since 2010 — 31 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Rutgers's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.