Michigan vs. Rutgers Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Michigan gets at Rutgers: 8th at running it, against a unit 133rd at defending the run. Rutgers projects no clear way in against Michigan. Michigan is also 15th on first and second down, against a unit 125th.
How
MICHattacks
RUTG
- 1
Run it
running it · projected
MICH#8 of 138RUTG#133 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
MICH#15 of 138RUTG#125 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected
MICH#19 of 138RUTG#126 of 138
The two teams
Michigan
Michigan is in year 1 under Kyle Whittingham, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 6th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 127th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Michigan has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#6projected
- Offenserunning it#8projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#9projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#127projected
Rutgers
Rutgers runs it: Greg Schiano's offenses have been run-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 29th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 133rd at defending the run, and they are 128th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −24.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Rutgers has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#29projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#32projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#35projected
Projected soft spots
- Defenserunning it#133projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#128projected
- Defensefirst and second down#125projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RUTG Elo 1372, MICH Elo 1698 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RUTG +9 (29% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MICH110th118thRUTGRUTG88th36thMICHThrough the air
MICH120th95thRUTGRUTG45th35thMICHOn the ground
MICH96th114thRUTGRUTG123rd75thMICHStaying on the field
MICH115th69thRUTGRUTG115th72ndMICHTaking care of it
MICH95th30thRUTGRUTG138th53rdMICH
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMichigan leads 9–1 · Michigan has won 9 straight · 30% have been one-possession games
| MICH | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.0 (#19) | CORE overall | -10.9 (#112) |
| +8 / -9 | offense / defense | +1 / +12 |
| 0.78 | points / drive | 1.75 |
| 0.90 | allowed / drive | 3.70 |
| 56% | three-and-outs | 50% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Michigan vs. Rutgers?
Gridpex's model favors Michigan with a 71% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Michigan vs. Rutgers?
The model projects Michigan by 9.0.
What time is Michigan vs. Rutgers and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at SHI Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →