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William Watson III had a hand in four of Massachusetts's six explosive plays

Massachusetts walked in the underdog and walked out with the win. What actually happened.

The Film Room
Matchups ·
4 min read

So much for the script. Massachusetts knocks off Rutgers, 37-21 at SHI Stadium. Massachusetts was not the side anyone expected to be up 16 at the end of it. William Watson III threw for 197 yards on 22 attempts with three touchdowns and ran six times for 40 yards.

37-21
Final
Massachusetts · SHI Stadium
242
Dylan Lonergan
passing yds, 2 TD

We had this one the other way

Before kickoff we made Rutgers the pick by about 32. The model missed the side: it favored Rutgers by ~32, but Massachusetts won by 16 as the underdog.

Model (pregame)Result
PickRutgers by 32 (97%)Massachusetts by 16
Vs. the spreadRutgers (+3 vs mkt)didn't cover ✗
What we projected, and how it landed

The turnover battle was the game

Massachusetts won the turnover battle 0-4, chiefly Jahmad Harmon (2 INTs, 2 tackles), Isaiah Reed (1 INT, 2 PBUs, 0.5 tackles) and Romando Johnson (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 fumble rec, 1.5 tackles). Massachusetts scored on 58% of its drives to Rutgers's 25%, led by William Watson III (18 pts), Curtis Kimmons IV (6 pts) and Elijah Faulkner (12 pts). That's what carried Massachusetts.

Head to head
MassachusettsRutgers
Points
37
21
Scored on % of drives
58.3%
25%
Three-and-out %
41.7%
50%
Yards / drive
29.5
28.8

How the two sides actually played on the night.

Three plays

Three plays carried most of the swing. Dylan Lonergan's 0-yard run that came up short on 4th-and-1 at Q3 03:35. Then Dylan Lonergan's dropback that came up short on 1st-and-10 at Q4 14:50. Later, Dylan Lonergan's 78-yard throw to KJ Duff for a touchdown on 4th-and-13 at Q4 07:09.

The names on it

William Watson III threw for 197 yards on 22 attempts with three touchdowns and ran six times for 40 yards, including that score from inside the 20, three third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Curtis Kimmons IV ran 11 times for 78 yards and one score and caught one pass for 9 yards — that score from inside the 20. Elijah Faulkner ran 19 times for 62 yards and caught two passes for 23 yards, two of them for touchdowns — that score from inside the 20. For Rutgers, KJ Duff caught nine passes for 196 yards, three of them for touchdowns, including two of them from inside the 20, two third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Dylan Lonergan threw for 242 yards on 29 attempts with two touchdowns and lost 14 yards on seven carries — that score from inside the 20 and a hand in seven plays of 15 yards or more. AJ Surace threw for 77 yards on nine attempts with one touchdown, including that score from inside the 20. Jahmad Harmon was the disruptive one for Massachusetts: 2 INTs, 2 tackles.

TeamPassingRushingReceiving
MassachusettsWilliam Watson III 197, 3 TDCurtis Kimmons IV 78, 1 TDJoseph Griffin Jr. 61, 1 TD
RutgersDylan Lonergan 242, 2 TDAntwan Raymond 42KJ Duff 196, 3 TD
Leaders

The order of events

Rutgers struck first through Dylan Lonergan, Massachusetts led 24-7 at the half and the final points came on a late touchdown by AJ Surace.

WhenTeamPlay
Q1 08:20Rutgers(08:20) No Huddle-Shotgun Dylan Lonergan pass complete short right to KJ Duff caught at…
Q1 05:26Massachusetts(05:26) Shotgun William Watson IIII pass complete short right to Elijah Faulkner caught…
Q2 11:46Massachusetts(11:46) Shotgun William Watson IIII pass complete short right to Elijah Faulkner caught…
Q2 09:43Massachusetts(09:44) Shotgun William Watson IIII pass complete deep left to Joseph Griffin Jr. caught…
Q2 03:42Massachusetts(03:42) Derek Morris field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: Edward Phillipson, LS…
Q3 08:22MassachusettsDerek Morris field goal attempt from 52 yards GOOD (H: Edward Phillipson, LS: Grant…
Q4 07:54Massachusetts(08:07) Derek Morris field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: Edward Phillipson, LS…
Q4 07:09Rutgers(07:09) No Huddle-Shotgun Dylan Lonergan pass complete deep left to KJ Duff caught at…
Q4 04:27Massachusetts(04:27) Shotgun Curtis Kimmons IV rush middle for 17 yards gain to the RU00 TOUCHDOWN…
Q4 01:57Rutgers(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun AJ Surace pass complete short right to KJ Duff caught at…
How the points were scored

The disruptive ones

Three names to keep: Jahmad Harmon (2 INTs, 2 tackles) for Massachusetts, Isaiah Reed (1 INT, 2 PBUs, 0.5 tackles) for Massachusetts and Zeraun Daniel (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 PBU, 6.5 tackles) for Massachusetts. 2 of Massachusetts's 5 sacks came from the defensive line — a change from the 64% it had averaged over the previous 5 seasons.

Where it leaves them

What comparable games predict next
Rutgers offense (loser)100% of 6 rebounded

Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.

A program win for Massachusetts; a gut-check loss Rutgers won't soon forget. KJ Duff was responsible for 18 of Rutgers's points; there was not enough behind him.

Discussion

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