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Bruins at Sabres
NHL

Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Boston Bruins
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
FinalTV ESPN, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Boston Bruins 4-3. The Sabres came back from two goals down. The Bruins led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mattias Samuelsson's goal at 16:36 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 52% to 93%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.2 to 2.2; shots on goal were BOS 20, BUF 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Jeremy Swayman stopped 34 of 37 (.919); Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 17 of 20 (.850), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tage Thompson (2 G, 1 A), 2. Mattias Samuelsson (1 G), 3. Alex Tuch (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    T. Thompson2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    M. Samuelsson1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    A. Tuch1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BOSBOS190427320
BUFBUF014013411438

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. BOS
    M. Geekie(1)
    D. Pastrnak (1), N. Zadorov (1)
    snapxG 0.24win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    10:52

3rd period

  1. BOS
    E. Lindholm(1)
    M. Geekie (1), D. Pastrnak (2)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    1:08
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(1)
    P. Krebs (1)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.20win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-1
    12:02
  3. BUF
    T. Thompson(2)
    A. Tuch (1)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +40 ptsVideo
    2-2
    15:44
  4. BUF
    M. Samuelsson(1)
    J. Quinn (1)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +41 ptsVideo
    2-3
    16:36
  5. BUF
    A. Tuch(1)EN
    T. Thompson (1), O. Power (1)
    wristxG 0.91win prob +5 ptsVideo
    2-4
    18:48
  6. BOS
    D. Pastrnak(1)PPG
    P. Zacha (1), M. Geekie (2)
    backhandxG 0.03Video
    3-4
    19:52

Penalties

BOS 12 PIM·BUF 10 PIM

1st

  • 12:03BUFRasmus Dahlin · Hookingdrawn by Morgan Geekie2 min
  • 14:45BOSNikita Zadorov · Cross checkingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min
  • 18:50BUFJason Zucker · Hookingdrawn by Andrew Peeke2 min

2nd

  • 0:27BOSPavel Zacha · Holdingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min
  • 12:42BOSAndrew Peeke · Holdingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min

3rd

  • 2:41BOSDavid Pastrnak · Slashingdrawn by Josh Dunne2 min
  • 16:12BUFZach Benson · Roughingdrawn by Mark Kastelic2 min
  • 16:12BUFConor Timmins · Roughingdrawn by Sean Kuraly2 min
  • 16:12BOSMark Kastelic · Roughingdrawn by Zach Benson2 min
  • 16:12BOSSean Kuraly · Roughingdrawn by Conor Timmins2 min
  • 19:41BUFTage Thompson · Trippingdrawn by Hampus Lindholm2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalBOS goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Mattias Samuelsson, 3rd 16:36 — BUF 52% → 93%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.91J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.54T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.20J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.18R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.17J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.16T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.15T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.12T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.12T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.11T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.09J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.09J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.08J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.08M. Samuelsson · Goal · xG 0.07Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.07A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.06J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.05B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.05J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.05R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.05L. Stanley · Missed · xG 0.05T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.04O. Power · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.04J. Dunne · Missed · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.03B. Malenstyn · Missed · xG 0.03A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.03O. Power · On goal · xG 0.03T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.03A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.03C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.03B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.02C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.02L. Stanley · Missed · xG 0.02M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.02J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.02J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.02J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.01A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.01C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.01J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.01J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.01J. Dunne · On goal · xG 0.01R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.01J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.00C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.00B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 4.2 xG · 56 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BOSvsBUF
2.23 G
All situations
3 G4.2
1.52 G
Even strength
3 G2.1
0.71 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BOS40%60%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.18 – 2.76

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BOSvsBUF
20
Shots on goal
38
51%
Faceoffs
49%
1/3
Power play
0/4
12
Penalty minutes
10
38
Hits
53
14
Blocked shots
11
13
Giveaways
13
5
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Boston Bruins skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
73C. McAvoyD000-220.04100—24:18
88D. PastrnakR123040.29412—21:15
27H. LindholmD000-110.00010—21:06
91N. ZadorovD011000.04612—20:42
28E. LindholmC101+120.534005019:18
39M. GeekieC123+120.42100019:16
26A. PeekeD000+100.01312—19:03
18P. ZachaC011-310.211125017:02
45J. AspirotD000-110.01130—16:09
6M. LohreiD000-100.00220—16:08
93F. MintenC000010.091005016:07
92M. KhusnutdinovC000010.103105014:13
52S. KuralyC000010.051025713:16
71V. ArvidssonL000-320.39020—12:45
11C. MittelstadtC000-310.0100010012:19
44J. HagensC000010.05100011:02
47M. KastelicC000000.005125010:51
84T. JeannotL000000.00400—08:21
Boston Bruins goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1J. Swayman(L)37343.9192.78-0.2258:49

Series

BUF leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).