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Lightning at Sabres
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
FinalTV NHLN, The Spot·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jason Zucker's goal at 7:38 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 53% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.4 to 2.5; shots on goal were TBL 25, BUF 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 26 of 29 (.897); Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 23 of 25 (.920). Three stars: 1. Alex Tuch (1 G), 2. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (23 saves, .920), 3. Jason Zucker (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    A. Tuch1 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    U. Luukkonen23 saves, .920
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Zucker1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL181809225
BUFBUF21111415430

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    A. Tuch(30)
    B. Byram (29), R. McLeod (39)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:42
  2. TBL
    N. Kucherov(43)PPG
    J. Guentzel (49), D. Raddysh (47)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    11:45
  3. BUF
    J. Norris(11)
    J. Doan (25), Z. Benson (27)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    14:04

2nd period

  1. TBL
    J. Guentzel(37)
    B. Point (30), D. Raddysh (48)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-2
    3:56
  2. BUF
    J. Zucker(23)
    B. Byram (30), R. Dahlin (52)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-3
    7:38

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Quinn(19)EN
    J. Zucker (18), U. Luukkonen (1)
    wristxG 0.52win prob +4 ptsVideo
    2-4
    18:06

Penalties

TBL 12 PIM·BUF 14 PIM

1st

  • 1:56TBLPontus Holmberg · Holding the stickdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 3:33BUFAlex Tuch · Holding the stickdrawn by J.J. Moser2 min
  • 7:19TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous · Trippingdrawn by Beck Malenstyn2 min
  • 10:03BUFJordan Greenway · Cross checkingdrawn by Darren Raddysh2 min
  • 10:03BUFJosh Dunne · Roughingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min
  • 10:03TBLCorey Perry · Roughingdrawn by Josh Dunne2 min
  • 16:37BUFJosh Doan · Trippingdrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min
  • 19:25TBLZemgus Girgensons · Slashingdrawn by Josh Doan2 min

2nd

  • 4:06BUFJack Quinn · High stickingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 10:05TBLErik Cernak · Interferencedrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 16:32BUFAlex Tuch · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

3rd

  • 10:40BUFZach Benson · Roughingdrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min
  • 10:40TBLJake Guentzel · Roughingdrawn by Zach Benson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalTBL goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Jason Zucker, 2nd 7:38 — BUF 53% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Quinn · Goal · xG 0.52J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.19T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.19Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.18A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.18J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.15J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.14A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.12A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.12J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.11J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.11A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.11A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.10A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.09J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.08J. Zucker · Goal · xG 0.08J. Norris · Goal · xG 0.07J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.07R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.07J. Dunne · On goal · xG 0.06J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.06J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.06A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.06O. Power · On goal · xG 0.05A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.05Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.04A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.04J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.03B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.03M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.02P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.01J. Dunne · Missed · xG 0.01L. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.00L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 3.4 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsBUF
2.52 G
All situations
3 G3.4
1.81 G
Even strength
3 G1.5
0.71 G
Power play
0 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL43%57%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.44 – 2.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsBUF
25
Shots on goal
30
53%
Faceoffs
47%
1/5
Power play
0/4
12
Penalty minutes
14
28
Hits
22
10
Blocked shots
10
18
Giveaways
13
5
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
43D. RaddyshD022-240.20000—25:45
59J. GuentzelC112-160.771025624:54
86N. KucherovR101-130.45000—23:30
21B. PointC011-120.431005020:11
90J. MoserD000-120.10000—19:54
93G. GoncalvesC000000.16300019:17
20N. PaulL000020.073007218:05
51C. D'AstousD000-130.09202—18:02
78E. LillebergD000-100.01220—16:58
27R. McDonaghD000-100.07020—16:44
22O. BjorkstrandR000010.00510—14:57
37Y. GourdeC000-200.000102214:53
81E. CernakD000010.02122—13:58
10C. PerryR000-210.09012—12:36
28Z. GirgensonsC000000.002024311:29
29P. HolmbergR000-200.00112—08:21
41M. ChaffeeR000-100.002003306:23
46S. SabourinR000000.00500—05:58
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(L)29263.8972.89-0.1158:05

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).