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Lightning at Sabres
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
7
Buffalo Sabres
▸8
FinalTV The Spot, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 8-7. The Sabres came back from two goals down. It was tied 4-4 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jason Zucker's goal at 14:29 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 14% to 52%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.5 to 4.0; shots on goal were TBL 28, BUF 42. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Jonas Johansson stopped 34 of 42 (.810), 3.9 goals below expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 22 of 28 (.786), 3.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Josh Doan (2 G), 2. Jason Zucker (2 G, 1 A), 3. Tage Thompson (4 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    J. Doan2 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Zucker2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    T. Thompson4 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL06410312728
BUFBUF110315417842

Scoring

15 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Doan(20)PPG
    T. Thompson (33), B. Byram (23)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    8:26

2nd period

  1. BUF
    J. Zucker(18)PPG
    R. Dahlin (43), T. Thompson (34)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    2:15
  2. BUF
    A. Tuch(26)PPG
    T. Thompson (35), N. Ostlund (14)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +8 ptsVideo
    0-3
    5:10
  3. TBL
    C. Perry(13)
    N. Kucherov (69), D. Raddysh (39)
    backhandxG 0.12win prob +8 ptsVideo
    1-3
    7:55
  4. BUF
    A. Tuch(27)SHG
    B. Byram (24)
    backhandxG 0.19win prob +10 ptsVideo
    1-4
    11:07
  5. TBL
    N. Kucherov(33)PPG
    D. Raddysh (40)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +7 ptsVideo
    2-4
    12:26
  6. TBL
    Z. Girgensons(8)
    Y. Gourde (16), J. Moser (16)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-4
    14:46
  7. TBL
    J. Moser(6)
    C. Geekie (2)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +21 ptsVideo
    4-4
    17:37

3rd period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(34)
    B. Hagel (29), J. Moser (17)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +25 ptsVideo
    5-4
    0:59
  2. TBL
    B. Point(16)
    Unassisted
    xG 0.20win prob +17 ptsVideo
    6-4
    5:46
  3. BUF
    S. Carrick(5)
    Z. Benson (21), M. Kesselring (2)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +16 ptsVideo
    6-5
    6:12
  4. TBL
    B. Hagel(30)
    A. Cirelli (23), D. Raddysh (41)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +16 ptsVideo
    7-5
    9:48
  5. BUF
    R. Dahlin(13)
    T. Thompson (36), B. Byram (25)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +14 ptsVideo
    7-6
    11:03
  6. BUF
    J. Zucker(19)
    R. McLeod (33)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +38 ptsVideo
    7-7
    14:29
  7. BUF
    J. Doan(21)PPG
    J. Zucker (15), R. Dahlin (44)
    wristxG 0.49win prob +31 ptsVideo
    7-8
    15:43

Penalties

TBL 57 PIM·BUF 45 PIM

1st

  • 4:36TBLDarren Raddysh · Slashingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min
  • 4:36TBLBrandon Hagel · Boardingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 4:36TBLDarren Raddysh · Fightingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin5 min
  • 4:36BUFRasmus Dahlin · Fightingdrawn by Darren Raddysh5 min
  • 8:20TBLErik Cernak · Interferencedrawn by Josh Norris2 min
  • 8:54BUFSam Carrick · Fightingdrawn by Scott Sabourin5 min
  • 8:54TBLScott Sabourin · Fightingdrawn by Sam Carrick5 min
  • 9:13TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous · Roughingdrawn by Bowen Byram2 min
  • 9:13BUFBowen Byram · Roughingdrawn by Charle-Edouard D'Astous2 min
  • 9:13TBLBrandon Hagel · Fightingdrawn by Peyton Krebs5 min
  • 9:13BUFPeyton Krebs · Fightingdrawn by Brandon Hagel5 min
  • 9:13BUFBowen Byram · Misconduct10 min
  • 9:13TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous · Misconduct10 min
  • 10:40BUFMattias Samuelsson · Slashingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 10:40TBLNikita Kucherov · Slashingdrawn by Mattias Samuelsson2 min
  • 14:59TBLErik Cernak · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Michael Kesselring2 min
  • 14:59BUFMichael Kesselring · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 16:41BUFNoah Ostlund · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Jonas Johansson2 min

2nd

  • 0:02BUFMichael Kesselring · Fightingdrawn by Erik Cernak5 min
  • 0:02TBLErik Cernak · Fightingdrawn by Michael Kesselring5 min
  • 0:06TBLCorey Perry · Fightingdrawn by Beck Malenstyn5 min
  • 0:06BUFBeck Malenstyn · Fightingdrawn by Corey Perry5 min
  • 1:31TBLRyan McDonagh · High stickingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min
  • 3:35TBLBrandon Hagel · Roughingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 3:35TBLBrandon Hagel · Roughingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 10:56BUFOwen Power · High stickingdrawn by Oliver Bjorkstrand2 min

3rd

  • 15:03TBLZemgus Girgensons · Slashingdrawn by Noah Ostlund2 min
  • 20:00TBLAnthony Cirelli · Chargingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalTBL goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Jason Zucker, 3rd 14:29 — BUF 14% → 52%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Doan · Goal · xG 0.49J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.39J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.26B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.21A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.19B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.19J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.17J. Zucker · Goal · xG 0.15R. Dahlin · Goal · xG 0.15J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.14J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.14N. Ostlund · On goal · xG 0.13J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.13J. Zucker · Goal · xG 0.13M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.12J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.11Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.11A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.10J. Doan · Goal · xG 0.09S. Carrick · On goal · xG 0.07T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.07R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.06J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.06J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.06S. Carrick · On goal · xG 0.06T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.05S. Carrick · Goal · xG 0.05N. Ostlund · Missed · xG 0.05A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.04R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.04B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.04B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.03M. Kesselring · On goal · xG 0.03J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.03J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ostlund · On goal · xG 0.02J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.02M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.02P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.02R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.02O. Power · Missed · xG 0.01J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.01J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.01B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.01J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.01J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.01B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF8 G · 4.5 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsBUF
4.07 G
All situations
8 G4.5
3.16 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
0.91 G
Power play
4 G1.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL51%49%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.99 – 3.92

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsBUF
28
Shots on goal
42
50%
Faceoffs
50%
1/2
Power play
4/7
57
Penalty minutes
45
40
Hits
27
6
Blocked shots
15
11
Giveaways
17
2
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
90J. MoserD123+230.66200—26:17
43D. RaddyshD033+240.17117—23:13
27R. McDonaghD000000.01002—20:41
77V. HedmanD000+230.11100—20:07
86N. KucherovR213+150.49502—19:15
71A. CirelliC011+110.344025518:55
37Y. GourdeC011+120.172006018:39
51C. D'AstousD000-110.094012—18:37
59J. GuentzelC000-110.320002917:44
21B. PointC101010.611103317:13
38B. HagelL112+120.540111—16:42
28Z. GirgensonsC101010.164026715:48
22O. BjorkstrandR000020.15200—14:02
29P. HolmbergR000000.03400—13:17
10C. PerryR101+210.12005—08:54
14C. GeekieC011010.066004307:33
81E. CernakD000000.00039—06:47
46S. SabourinR000000.00405—04:17
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31J. Johansson(L)42348.8104.11-3.8958:54

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).