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Sabres at Lightning
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
3
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
Final/OTTV ESPN+, HULU·Benchmark International Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-3 in overtime, Jake Guentzel scoring at 4:45. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Darren Raddysh's goal at 19:34 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 3% to 51%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.5 to 2.8; shots on goal were BUF 26, TBL 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Colten Ellis stopped 31 of 35 (.886); Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 23 of 26 (.885). Three stars: 1. Jake Guentzel (1 G, 1 A), 2. Nikita Kucherov (1 G, 3 A), 3. Mattias Samuelsson (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    J. Guentzel1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 G, 3 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    M. Samuelsson2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
BUFBUF19042805326
TBLTBL11301021111435

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(29)
    J. Guentzel (34)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    10:24
  2. BUF
    M. Samuelsson(10)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.03win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    16:53

3rd period

  1. BUF
    M. Samuelsson(11)
    R. McLeod (29), J. Quinn (24)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +27 ptsVideo
    2-1
    4:08
  2. TBL
    O. Bjorkstrand(9)PPG
    D. Raddysh (34), N. Kucherov (59)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +25 ptsVideo
    2-2
    8:53
  3. BUF
    J. Doan(18)PPG
    T. Thompson (29), R. Dahlin (36)
    deflectedxG 0.13win prob +36 ptsVideo
    3-2
    14:53
  4. TBL
    D. Raddysh(17)
    N. Kucherov (60), B. Hagel (27)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-3
    19:34

Overtime

  1. TBL
    J. Guentzel(25)
    N. Kucherov (61), J. Moser (14)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-4
    4:45

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·TBL 6 PIM

1st

  • 1:10BUFNoah Ostlund · Holdingdrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min
  • 10:35TBLGage Goncalves · Holdingdrawn by Josh Doan2 min
  • 13:55TBLJ.J. Moser · Trippingdrawn by Jack Quinn2 min

3rd

  • 7:33BUFBowen Byram · Hookingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 12:55TBLCurtis Douglas · Hookingdrawn by Konsta Helenius2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalBUF goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Darren Raddysh, 3rd 19:34 — TBL 3% → 51%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.26D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.22N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.22J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.21O. Bjorkstrand · Goal · xG 0.21J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.19N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.18O. Bjorkstrand · On goal · xG 0.14J. Finley · On goal · xG 0.13G. Goncalves · On goal · xG 0.11C. Douglas · Missed · xG 0.11S. Sabourin · Missed · xG 0.11Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.11N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.11N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.09Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.08N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.08D. James · On goal · xG 0.08D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.07Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.07Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.07B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.06C. Douglas · On goal · xG 0.06D. Raddysh · Goal · xG 0.06P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.05B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.05D. James · On goal · xG 0.05D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.04J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.03R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02D. Carlile · On goal · xG 0.02D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.02B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01D. Carlile · Missed · xG 0.01D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.01J. Moser · Missed · xG 0.00S. Sabourin · On goal · xG 0.00J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.00R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.00V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL4 G · 3.5 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsTBL
2.83 G
All situations
4 G3.5
1.62 G
Even strength
3 G2.8
1.11 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF39%61%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.77 – 3.44

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsTBL
26
Shots on goal
35
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/3
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
13
Hits
26
9
Blocked shots
10
22
Giveaways
15
9
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD011070.49010—27:47
23M. SamuelssonD202+130.11200—24:01
4B. ByramD000-100.04012—23:37
89A. TuchR000-210.220105022:38
72T. ThompsonC011-150.631005022:09
25O. PowerD000-110.10020—21:51
71R. McLeodC011020.430104719:31
22J. QuinnR011020.06100—17:50
19P. KrebsC000-210.38300017:47
17J. ZuckerL000000.000006017:10
91J. DoanR101010.28000—16:29
86N. OstlundC000000.000025014:36
94K. HeleniusC000+110.023105013:47
48T. KozakC000+100.001105712:25
73Z. MetsaD000000.00010—11:12
78J. BrysonD000010.00000—11:01
29B. MalenstynL000+110.0020010009:08
63I. RosenR000000.00000—08:17
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
92C. Ellis(O)35314.8863.55-0.4564:24

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).