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Sabres at Lightning
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸6
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
FinalTV The Spot, MSG-B·Benchmark International Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Josh Norris's goal at 6:15 of the first period, which took the Sabres' chances from 58% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.1 to 3.4; shots on goal were BUF 35, TBL 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 36 of 38 (.947), 1.4 goals saved above expected; Jonas Johansson stopped 20 of 21 (.952), 1.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Rasmus Dahlin (1 G, 2 A), 2. Josh Norris (2 G), 3. Zach Metsa (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    R. Dahlin1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Norris2 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    Z. Metsa1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF41012015635
TBLTBL014112112238

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    R. Dahlin(12)
    O. Power (14)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    5:25
  2. BUF
    J. Norris(7)
    J. Doan (22), Z. Metsa (2)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-0
    6:15
  3. BUF
    J. Norris(8)
    B. Byram (21), Z. Benson (20)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +12 ptsVideo
    3-0
    8:18
  4. BUF
    T. Thompson(32)
    P. Krebs (20), R. Dahlin (38)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +7 ptsVideo
    4-0
    15:06

2nd period

  1. BUF
    Z. Metsa(2)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.17win prob +3 ptsVideo
    5-0
    1:54
  2. TBL
    D. James(7)
    O. Bjorkstrand (18), V. Hedman (14)
    wristxG 0.28win prob +1 ptsVideo
    5-1
    16:03

3rd period

  1. BUF
    A. Tuch(24)PPG
    R. Dahlin (39), J. Quinn (26)
    wristxG 0.05Video
    6-1
    3:43
  2. TBL
    V. Hedman(1)
    D. Raddysh (37)
    slapxG 0.04Video
    6-2
    5:27

Penalties

BUF 12 PIM·TBL 28 PIM

1st

  • 10:44BUFZach Benson · Cross checkingdrawn by Oliver Bjorkstrand2 min

2nd

  • 5:47TBLBrayden Point · Slashingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 5:47BUFRasmus Dahlin · Cross checkingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 10:26TBLEmil Lilleberg · Roughingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 12:10TBLJake Guentzel · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 16:03TBLVictor Hedman · Roughingdrawn by Mattias Samuelsson2 min
  • 16:03BUFMattias Samuelsson · Roughingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min

3rd

  • 1:28BUFAlex Tuch · Roughingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min
  • 1:28TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous · Roughingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min
  • 1:28BUFMichael Kesselring · Cross checkingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min
  • 2:02TBLJake Guentzel · Abuse of officials2 min
  • 2:02TBLJake Guentzel · Abusive language10 min
  • 6:23TBLDarren Raddysh · Cross checkingdrawn by Beck Malenstyn2 min
  • 12:48TBLAnthony Cirelli · Interferencedrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 17:12BUFMichael Kesselring · Cross checkingdrawn by Dominic James2 min
  • 20:00TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous · Roughingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalBUF goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Josh Norris, 1st 6:15 — BUF 58% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. James · Goal · xG 0.28B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.18J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.16B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.13B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.13A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.12A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.12A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.11J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.11B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.11G. Goncalves · Missed · xG 0.10G. Goncalves · On goal · xG 0.10O. Bjorkstrand · Missed · xG 0.10N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.09D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.09O. Bjorkstrand · On goal · xG 0.08B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.08G. Goncalves · On goal · xG 0.07J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.07D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.07O. Bjorkstrand · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.07V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.07O. Bjorkstrand · Missed · xG 0.07E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.06Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.06B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.06Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.05V. Hedman · Goal · xG 0.04O. Bjorkstrand · On goal · xG 0.04O. Bjorkstrand · On goal · xG 0.04B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.04J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.04B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.03D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.03J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.02P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.02E. Lilleberg · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lilleberg · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.01D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.01J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lilleberg · On goal · xG 0.00B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL2 G · 3.4 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsTBL
4.16 G
All situations
2 G3.4
2.95 G
Even strength
2 G2.9
1.21 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 101 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF60%40%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.99 – 3.33

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsTBL
35
Shots on goal
38
48%
Faceoffs
52%
1/5
Power play
0/3
12
Penalty minutes
28
16
Hits
28
14
Blocked shots
5
16
Giveaways
11
2
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD123+220.30002—24:32
23M. SamuelssonD000-110.09122—24:08
4B. ByramD011+240.21020—22:45
71R. McLeodC000+120.290104820:21
25O. PowerD011+240.20000—19:59
89A. TuchR101-150.62102—18:15
91J. DoanR011+220.15110—16:08
72T. ThompsonC101-160.550007516:00
9J. NorrisC202+220.270004415:03
86N. OstlundC000+100.22120014:46
22J. QuinnR011+220.24100—14:21
6Z. BensonL011+100.0020210013:39
73Z. MetsaD112+230.38020—13:08
48T. KozakC000+100.000103813:04
29B. MalenstynL000010.15420—12:26
17J. ZuckerL000+210.2201010012:05
19P. KrebsC011-100.145003310:59
8M. KesselringD000-100.00004—08:40
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(W)38362.9473.38+1.3859:41

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).