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Sabres at Panthers
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸3
Florida Panthers
2
FinalTV MSG-B, SCRIPPS·Amerant Bank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Florida Panthers 3-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Beck Malenstyn's goal at 11:38 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 48% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.2 to 3.5; shots on goal were BUF 39, FLA 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Alex Lyon stopped 28 of 29 (.966), 1.4 goals saved above expected; Daniil Tarasov stopped 36 of 38 (.947), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Beck Malenstyn (1 G), 2. Alex Lyon (28 saves, .966), 3. Matthew Tkachuk (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    B. Malenstyn1 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    A. Lyon28 saves, .966
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    M. Tkachuk1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF116012211339
FLAFLA01111117229

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    A. Tuch(23)PPG
    R. McLeod (31), B. Byram (20)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    17:48

2nd period

  1. FLA
    M. Tkachuk(5)PPG
    B. Marchand (26), S. Bennett (25)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-1
    13:51

3rd period

  1. BUF
    B. Malenstyn(5)
    J. Norris (12), N. Ostlund (10)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +35 ptsVideo
    2-1
    11:38
  2. BUF
    P. Krebs(9)EN
    T. Thompson (31), A. Tuch (27)
    wristxG 0.52win prob +5 ptsVideo
    3-1
    18:43
  3. FLA
    S. Bennett(20)
    Unassisted
    xG 0.04win prob +2 ptsVideo
    3-2
    19:25

Penalties

BUF 8 PIM·FLA 6 PIM

1st

  • 2:00BUFBeck Malenstyn · Trippingdrawn by Donovan Sebrango2 min
  • 15:57FLAA.J. Greer · Hookingdrawn by Josh Dunne2 min

2nd

  • 9:47BUFserved by J. Quinn · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 13:45BUFMichael Kesselring · Hookingdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min
  • 17:55FLAGustav Forsling · Holdingdrawn by Josh Doan2 min

3rd

  • 5:20BUFJosh Dunne · Hookingdrawn by Aaron Ekblad2 min
  • 11:38FLAserved by Sandis Vilmanis · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalBUF goalFinal: FLA 0%

Biggest swing: Beck Malenstyn, 3rd 11:38 — BUF 48% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.26M. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.23B. Marchand · On goal · xG 0.19S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.17L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.17A. Greer · On goal · xG 0.16B. Marchand · On goal · xG 0.15M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.15A. Greer · Missed · xG 0.13S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.12B. Marchand · Missed · xG 0.12M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.11C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.10S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.10U. Balinskis · On goal · xG 0.09E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.08S. Vilmanis · Missed · xG 0.08L. Kunin · Missed · xG 0.08S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.08E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.08M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.07G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.07B. Marchand · On goal · xG 0.07S. Vilmanis · Missed · xG 0.06S. Bennett · Goal · xG 0.04M. Samoskevich · On goal · xG 0.04S. Vilmanis · On goal · xG 0.04A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.04G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.04U. Balinskis · On goal · xG 0.03A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.03B. Marchand · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.02S. Vilmanis · Missed · xG 0.02S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.02G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.02M. Samoskevich · Missed · xG 0.02A. Lundell · Missed · xG 0.01A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.01N. Mikkola · Missed · xG 0.01G. Forsling · Missed · xG 0.01A. Lundell · Missed · xG 0.01A. Greer · On goal · xG 0.01G. Forsling · Missed · xG 0.00D. Sebrango · On goal · xG 0.00J. Petry · Missed · xG 0.00
FLA2 G · 3.5 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsFLA
4.22 G
All situations
2 G3.5
2.81 G
Even strength
1 G1.6
0.61 G
Power play
1 G1.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 101 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF49%51%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.35 – 3.42

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsFLA
39
Shots on goal
29
37%
Faceoffs
63%
1/3
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
14
Hits
20
18
Blocked shots
16
15
Giveaways
16
7
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000+120.14000—25:04
25O. PowerD000030.06040—23:46
4B. ByramD011020.03110—23:42
23M. SamuelssonD000+130.39320—23:42
72T. ThompsonC011+110.300102719:39
89A. TuchR112+160.75130—19:23
9J. NorrisC011030.290004717:46
91J. DoanR000-130.30310—16:23
71R. McLeodC011010.170003115:58
17J. ZuckerL000010.40100—15:52
19P. KrebsC101+120.561006714:37
22J. QuinnR000020.23000—14:35
86N. OstlundC011030.230003314:23
8M. KesselringD000010.06022—12:19
29B. MalenstynL101+130.07112—10:57
48T. KozakC000010.052302210:45
44J. DunneC000010.081027508:54
73Z. MetsaD000010.05000—06:13
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34A. Lyon(W)29282.9663.45+1.4560:00

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).