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Panthers at Sabres
NHL

Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
▸4
Buffalo Sabres
3
FinalTV MSG-B, SCRIPPS·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-3. The Panthers scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anton Lundell's goal at 11:07 of the third period, which took the Panthers' chances from 48% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 3.3 to 2.7; shots on goal were FLA 32, BUF 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 20 of 23 (.870); Colten Ellis stopped 28 of 31 (.903). Three stars: 1. Anton Lundell (1 G), 2. Carter Verhaeghe (3 A), 3. Zach Benson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    A. Lundell1 G
  2. ★★
    FLA
    C. Verhaeghe3 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    Z. Benson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA21109212432
BUFBUF1711016323

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    S. Reinhart(24)PPG
    U. Balinskis (7), C. Verhaeghe (19)
    tip-inxG 0.15win prob +8 ptsVideo
    1-0
    2:35
  2. BUF
    J. Bryson(2)
    R. McLeod (18), Z. Metsa (1)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    10:19
  3. FLA
    A. Greer(8)
    S. Bennett (18), C. Verhaeghe (20)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-1
    15:11

2nd period

  1. BUF
    Z. Benson(5)
    T. Thompson (20)
    wristxG 0.57win prob +12 ptsVideo
    2-2
    17:57

3rd period

  1. FLA
    A. Lundell(14)
    E. Luostarinen (15), G. Forsling (15)
    wristxG 0.55win prob +34 ptsVideo
    3-2
    11:07
  2. FLA
    A. Greer(9)EN
    C. Verhaeghe (21), S. Bennett (19)
    wristxG 0.55win prob +5 ptsVideo
    4-2
    18:46
  3. BUF
    A. Tuch(15)
    B. Byram (15), R. Dahlin (26)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +1 ptsVideo
    4-3
    19:46

Penalties

FLA 9 PIM·BUF 7 PIM

1st

  • 2:16BUFJosh Doan · Interferencedrawn by Sandis Vilmanis2 min

2nd

  • 8:33FLASam Bennett · Slashingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 13:55FLAJeff Petry · Hookingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 16:35FLADonovan Sebrango · Fightingdrawn by Josh Dunne5 min
  • 16:35BUFJosh Dunne · Fightingdrawn by Donovan Sebrango5 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalFLA goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Anton Lundell, 3rd 11:07 — FLA 48% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Benson · Goal · xG 0.58J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.23T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.16T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.13T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.12J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.11J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.10P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.10M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.09J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.09A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.09A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.08P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.08J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.07J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.06J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.05J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.05T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.04J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.04T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.04J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.03J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.03A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.02M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.02J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.02M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.02J. Dunne · On goal · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bryson · Goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.01B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.00J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.00B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.00B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.00P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.00R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF3 G · 2.7 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsBUF
3.33 G
All situations
3 G2.7
2.42 G
Even strength
3 G2.4
0.21 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA52%48%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.68 – 2.59

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsBUF
32
Shots on goal
23
48%
Faceoffs
52%
1/1
Power play
0/2
9
Penalty minutes
7
18
Hits
22
14
Blocked shots
19
12
Giveaways
24
6
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77N. MikkolaD000+130.03100—25:16
42G. ForslingD011-120.16100—24:12
5A. EkbladD000000.01030—23:58
26U. BalinskisD011+200.02000—22:19
13S. ReinhartC101070.66110020:55
23C. VerhaegheC033+110.191106720:39
9S. BennettC022+140.242021919:29
15A. LundellC101040.831106018:53
27E. LuostarinenC011010.07130018:29
10A. GreerL202+120.66100—17:35
17E. RodriguesC000040.070106016:40
11M. SamoskevichR000000.11300—13:46
2J. PetryD000-110.06212—13:15
95S. VilmanisL000020.03300—12:03
6D. SebrangoD000-100.04005—10:44
71L. KuninC000-110.131106006:25
70J. BoqvistC000-100.00010006:14
53J. StudnickaC000-100.00010005:31
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
72S. Bobrovsky(W)23203.8702.67-0.3359:37

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).