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Sabres at Panthers
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
Florida Panthers
3
FinalTV MSG-B, SCRIPPS·Amerant Bank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Florida Panthers 5-3. The Sabres came back from two goals down. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jason Zucker's goal at 5:31 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 54% to 76%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 4.1 to 3.1; shots on goal were BUF 20, FLA 42. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Alex Lyon stopped 39 of 42 (.929), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 15 of 20 (.750), 2.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jason Zucker (1 G), 2. Rasmus Dahlin (2 A), 3. Sam Reinhart (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    J. Zucker1 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    R. Dahlin2 A
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    S. Reinhart2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF281626520
FLAFLA29119014342

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    S. Vilmanis(2)
    A. Greer (10), N. Mikkola (8)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    0:37
  2. FLA
    E. Rodrigues(10)
    S. Reinhart (26), T. Bjornfot (1)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    5:54
  3. BUF
    T. Thompson(29)
    P. Krebs (17), R. Dahlin (34)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    15:03
  4. BUF
    P. Krebs(7)
    R. Dahlin (35), A. Tuch (26)
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-2
    18:26

2nd period

  1. BUF
    Z. Benson(7)
    R. McLeod (27), O. Power (13)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +19 ptsVideo
    3-2
    5:44
  2. FLA
    U. Balinskis(4)PPG
    S. Reinhart (27), C. Verhaeghe (26)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +19 ptsVideo
    3-3
    18:59

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Zucker(14)PPG
    J. Doan (21), J. Quinn (23)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +22 ptsVideo
    4-3
    5:31
  2. BUF
    J. Doan(17)
    P. Krebs (18), R. McLeod (28)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +7 ptsVideo
    5-3
    17:51

Penalties

BUF 8 PIM·FLA 6 PIM

2nd

  • 3:36BUFRyan McLeod · Delaying game2 min
  • 12:51FLAJeff Petry · Trippingdrawn by Zach Benson2 min
  • 17:11BUFJack Quinn · Slashingdrawn by Aaron Ekblad2 min

3rd

  • 0:35FLAAaron Ekblad · Holdingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min
  • 5:19FLACole Schwindt · Hookingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min
  • 12:15BUFRasmus Dahlin · Trippingdrawn by Eetu Luostarinen2 min
  • 13:08BUFBowen Byram · Slashingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalBUF goalFinal: FLA 0%

Biggest swing: Jason Zucker, 3rd 5:31 — BUF 54% → 76%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Schwindt · On goal · xG 0.38S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.22U. Balinskis · On goal · xG 0.21M. Samoskevich · Missed · xG 0.20C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.17C. Schwindt · On goal · xG 0.15E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.14A. Greer · Missed · xG 0.14U. Balinskis · Goal · xG 0.14C. Schwindt · On goal · xG 0.13S. Vilmanis · Goal · xG 0.12L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.11U. Balinskis · On goal · xG 0.11C. Schwindt · Missed · xG 0.10C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.10C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.10M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.09C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.09T. Bjornfot · On goal · xG 0.09C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.08E. Rodrigues · Goal · xG 0.08E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.07E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.07M. Samoskevich · On goal · xG 0.07S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.06A. Greer · Missed · xG 0.06E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.06E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.06S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.06C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.05M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.05C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.04S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.04M. Samoskevich · On goal · xG 0.04C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.04E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.03A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.03S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.02M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.02S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.02M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.02C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.02G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.02M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.02N. Mikkola · Missed · xG 0.01J. Boqvist · On goal · xG 0.01N. Mikkola · Missed · xG 0.01A. Greer · On goal · xG 0.01A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.01J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.01L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.01S. Vilmanis · On goal · xG 0.01G. Forsling · Missed · xG 0.01E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.01L. Kunin · Missed · xG 0.01A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA3 G · 4.1 xG · 59 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsFLA
3.15 G
All situations
3 G4.1
1.94 G
Even strength
2 G2.4
0.41 G
Power play
1 G1.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF23%77%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.28 – 4.06

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsFLA
20
Shots on goal
42
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/3
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
23
Hits
22
20
Blocked shots
13
17
Giveaways
17
2
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
23M. SamuelssonD000010.00170—27:26
25O. PowerD011+100.01140—24:17
4B. ByramD000+100.00022—22:54
89A. TuchR011+310.0812010022:27
26R. DahlinD022+110.11022—21:54
72T. ThompsonC101+241.370004720:14
19P. KrebsC123+210.137003319:27
71R. McLeodC022+110.270125616:54
91J. DoanR112010.22300—16:22
22J. QuinnR011-140.36102—16:13
17J. ZuckerL101-120.22100—16:00
6Z. BensonL101+120.19100—14:10
86N. OstlundC000-100.000004312:15
8M. KesselringD000+110.01000—11:48
48T. KozakC000010.083105511:14
29B. MalenstynL000000.00400—08:04
73Z. MetsaD000000.00000—07:30
63I. RosenR000000.00010—03:08
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34A. Lyon(W)42393.9294.08+1.0859:55

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).