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Wild at Predators
NHL

Minnesota Wild at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Minnesota Wild
▸6
Nashville Predators
5
Final/OTTV FDSNSO, FDSNNO·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Nashville Predators 6-5 in overtime, Jared Spurgeon scoring at 4:14. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 4-4 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jared Spurgeon's goal at 4:14 of overtime, which took the Wild's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 4.2 to 3.4; shots on goal were MIN 43, NSH 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Filip Gustavsson stopped 30 of 35 (.857), 1.6 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 37 of 43 (.860), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Matt Boldy (3 G, 1 A), 2. Jared Spurgeon (1 G), 3. Quinn Hughes (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MIN
    M. Boldy3 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    MIN
    J. Spurgeon1 G
  3. ★★★
    MIN
    Q. Hughes2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
MINMIN3151711912643
NSHNSH3121151701535

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. MIN
    M. Boldy(30)
    Z. Bogosian (4), J. Eriksson Ek (25)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:49
  2. MIN
    M. Boldy(31)PPG
    Q. Hughes (51), M. Zuccarello (24)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +11 ptsVideo
    2-0
    3:39
  3. NSH
    F. Forsberg(24)PPG
    R. Josi (28), J. Marchessault (6)
    wristxG 0.57win prob +12 ptsVideo
    2-1
    9:26
  4. MIN
    M. Boldy(32)
    Q. Hughes (52), B. Faber (24)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-1
    12:58
  5. NSH
    S. Stamkos(28)PPG
    F. Forsberg (23), R. O'Reilly (34)
    slapxG 0.17win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-2
    16:45
  6. NSH
    E. Haula(9)
    J. Marchessault (7), N. Perbix (6)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-3
    18:21

2nd period

  1. NSH
    L. Evangelista(8)
    S. Stamkos (15), R. O'Reilly (35)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-4
    0:41
  2. MIN
    Y. Trenin(5)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +21 ptsVideo
    4-4
    16:06

3rd period

  1. MIN
    V. Tarasenko(15)
    J. Middleton (12), D. Yurov (14)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +40 ptsVideo
    5-4
    15:14
  2. NSH
    R. Josi(11)
    R. O'Reilly (36), S. Stamkos (16)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +40 ptsVideo
    5-5
    15:48

Overtime

  1. MIN
    J. Spurgeon(6)
    M. Boldy (30), K. Kaprizov (38)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +51 ptsVideo
    6-5
    4:14

Penalties

MIN 11 PIM·NSH 9 PIM

1st

  • 3:31NSHSteven Stamkos · Trippingdrawn by Quinn Hughes2 min
  • 9:16MINRyan Hartman · Trippingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min
  • 13:35NSHAdam Wilsby · Fightingdrawn by Vinnie Hinostroza5 min
  • 13:35MINVinnie Hinostroza · Fightingdrawn by Adam Wilsby5 min
  • 16:20MINKirill Kaprizov · Holdingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min

2nd

  • 18:06MINQuinn Hughes · Hookingdrawn by Cole Smith2 min

3rd

  • 1:19NSHRyan O'Reilly · High stickingdrawn by Quinn Hughes2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalMIN goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Jared Spurgeon, OT 4:14 — MIN 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.57S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.24R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.20E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.18S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.17F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.15J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.14E. Haula · Missed · xG 0.12R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.10E. Haula · Goal · xG 0.10S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.09F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.09L. Evangelista · Goal · xG 0.09R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.08R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.08J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.08M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.06N. Perbix · Missed · xG 0.06L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.06M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.06M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.05S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.05M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.03S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.03R. Schaefer · On goal · xG 0.03L. Evangelista · Missed · xG 0.03R. Josi · Goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.02S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.02L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.02M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.02T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.01N. Blankenburg · On goal · xG 0.01N. Blankenburg · On goal · xG 0.01N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.01M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.01M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.01
NSH5 G · 3.4 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MINvsNSH
4.26 G
All situations
5 G3.4
4.15 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
0.11 G
Power play
2 G1.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 108 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MIN63%37%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.10 – 3.28

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MINvsNSH
43
Shots on goal
35
41%
Faceoffs
59%
1/2
Power play
2/3
11
Penalty minutes
9
26
Hits
14
12
Blocked shots
17
16
Giveaways
17
2
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Minnesota Wild skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
43Q. HughesD022-110.03012—28:58
7B. FaberD011040.13100—25:55
97K. KaprizovL011050.29112—24:43
5J. MiddletonD011+200.00230—20:30
36M. ZuccarelloR011030.26000—19:42
12M. BoldyL314060.900003319:02
38R. HartmanR000040.551223918:54
46J. SpurgeonD101+210.16410—18:49
14J. Eriksson EkC011-120.191004316:57
13Y. TreninC101+271.02400016:22
91V. TarasenkoR101+250.38100—15:43
22D. YurovR011+210.163102515:14
24Z. BogosianD011010.01100—14:33
90M. JohanssonL000000.10010—14:28
48D. HuntD000020.02110—14:26
78N. SturmC000000.011107109:27
19T. PitlickC000000.01400008:19
18V. HinostrozaC000010.02105008:09
Minnesota Wild goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32F. Gustavsson(W)35305.8573.35-1.6564:10

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).