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Jets at Stars
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets
3
Dallas Stars
▸4
Final/OTTV FOX4, Victory+·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Winnipeg Jets 4-3 in overtime, Thomas Harley scoring at 2:05. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Thomas Harley's goal at 2:05 of overtime, which took the Stars' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 4.8 to 2.5; shots on goal were WPG 27, DAL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 83% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Thomas Harley (1 G), 2. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 1 A), 3. Cole Perfetti (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    T. Harley1 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    M. Rantanen1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    C. Perfetti1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
WPGWPG08291901327
DALDAL08291912428

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. DAL
    J. Robertson(31)PPG
    M. Rantanen (48), R. Hintz (28)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    0:48
  2. WPG
    G. Vilardi(21)
    C. Perfetti (12), A. Lowry (10)
    snapxG 0.35win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    2:26
  3. WPG
    C. Perfetti(6)PPG
    G. Vilardi (28), M. Scheifele (39)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +12 ptsVideo
    2-1
    3:58
  4. DAL
    N. Lundkvist(3)
    M. Duchene (8), J. Benn (12)
    snapxG 0.32win prob +21 ptsVideo
    2-2
    15:13

3rd period

  1. DAL
    M. Rantanen(20)
    J. Hryckowian (10), M. Heiskanen (36)
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +34 ptsVideo
    2-3
    12:17
  2. WPG
    L. Stanley(9)
    M. Scheifele (40), K. Connor (39)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +44 ptsVideo
    3-3
    18:17

Overtime

  1. DAL
    T. Harley(5)
    M. Duchene (9), M. Heiskanen (37)
    backhandxG 0.24win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-4
    2:05

Penalties

WPG 8 PIM·DAL 6 PIM

1st

  • 5:22DALRadek Faksa · Trippingdrawn by Morgan Barron2 min
  • 14:21DALMiro Heiskanen · Hookingdrawn by Gabriel Vilardi2 min
  • 19:39WPGJonathan Toews · Hookingdrawn by Adam Erne2 min

2nd

  • 3:31DALMikko Rantanen · Trippingdrawn by Gustav Nyquist2 min
  • 11:34WPGLuke Schenn · Interferencedrawn by Jamie Benn2 min
  • 12:20WPGMorgan Barron · Trippingdrawn by Jason Robertson2 min

3rd

  • 2:43WPGJonathan Toews · Hookingdrawn by Sam Steel2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalWPG goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Thomas Harley, OT 2:05 — DAL 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Lundkvist · Goal · xG 0.32T. Harley · Goal · xG 0.24W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.23S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.23R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.22J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.20J. Hryckowian · Missed · xG 0.19J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.17R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.17W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.17M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.17R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.17A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.16M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.16R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.15J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.15A. Erne · Missed · xG 0.15J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.13J. Hryckowian · On goal · xG 0.13M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.12M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.11J. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.10J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.09M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.08O. Bäck · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.08S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.07J. Hryckowian · Missed · xG 0.06M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.06M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.05J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.05O. Bäck · On goal · xG 0.05R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.04M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.04N. Lundkvist · Missed · xG 0.03S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.03T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.02J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.02W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.02J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.01K. Capobianco · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.01T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL4 G · 4.8 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsDAL
2.53 G
All situations
4 G4.8
1.72 G
Even strength
3 G3.4
0.71 G
Power play
1 G1.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG17%83%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.41 – 4.77

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsDAL
27
Shots on goal
28
42%
Faceoffs
58%
1/3
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
28
Hits
24
7
Blocked shots
19
14
Giveaways
14
3
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44J. MorrisseyD000020.09100—25:17
55M. ScheifeleC022-220.270105024:36
81K. ConnorL011-210.29100—23:50
54D. SambergD000010.01210—22:50
2D. DeMeloD000-140.04100—22:26
57E. SalomonssonD000010.00000—20:28
13G. VilardiC112+220.4401010018:10
91C. PerfettiC112+230.46100016:42
17A. LowryC011+100.210005016:01
64L. StanleyD101020.12310—15:27
9A. IafalloL000-110.02110—13:03
14G. NyquistR000-110.06110—12:40
62N. NiederreiterR000010.07300—12:29
7V. NamestnikovC000000.00300012:23
5L. SchennD000010.01402—12:16
19J. ToewsC000000.000044512:04
36M. BarronC000020.125021311:06
45C. KoepkeL000030.23210—08:14
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(O)28244.8574.85+0.8561:09

Season series

DAL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).