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Stars at Blues
NHL

Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
▸4
St. Louis Blues
3
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the St. Louis Blues 4-3. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Thomas Harley's goal at 18:53 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 48% to 97%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 2.9 to 2.2; shots on goal were DAL 24, STL 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 0.8 goals below expected; Jordan Binnington stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Matt Duchene (2 G), 2. Brayden Schenn (2 G), 3. Thomas Harley (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    M. Duchene2 G
  2. ★★
    STL
    B. Schenn2 G
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    T. Harley1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL093916424
STLSTL0906311326

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. DAL
    M. Duchene(6)PPG
    M. Rantanen (45), J. Robertson (31)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-0
    3:20
  2. DAL
    M. Duchene(7)
    T. Harley (17), S. Steel (13)
    backhandxG 0.03win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    4:00
  3. DAL
    R. Hintz(15)PPG
    J. Robertson (32), M. Heiskanen (34)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +6 ptsVideo
    3-0
    18:06

3rd period

  1. STL
    R. Fabbri(1)
    J. Faulk (14), T. Tucker (8)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +7 ptsVideo
    3-1
    3:15
  2. STL
    B. Schenn(11)
    J. Snuggerud (10), D. Dvorsky (5)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-2
    6:22
  3. STL
    B. Schenn(12)
    J. Snuggerud (11)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +40 ptsVideo
    3-3
    15:50
  4. DAL
    T. Harley(3)
    W. Johnston (30)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +48 ptsVideo
    4-3
    18:53

Penalties

DAL 6 PIM·STL 6 PIM

1st

  • 5:48DALMatt Duchene · Cross checkingdrawn by Robby Fabbri2 min
  • 14:06STLTyler Tucker · Trippingdrawn by Colin Blackwell2 min

2nd

  • 2:11STLRobby Fabbri · Slashingdrawn by Wyatt Johnston2 min
  • 11:25DALserved by M. Bourque · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 17:58STLDalibor Dvorsky · Slashingdrawn by Wyatt Johnston2 min

3rd

  • 3:15DALserved by M. Bourque · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalDAL goalFinal: STL 0%

Biggest swing: Thomas Harley, 3rd 18:53 — DAL 48% → 97%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Neighbours · Missed · xG 0.25J. Snuggerud · On goal · xG 0.19J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.17J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.16J. Snuggerud · Missed · xG 0.15B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.15R. Fabbri · Goal · xG 0.15D. Dvorsky · On goal · xG 0.13R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.11J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.10N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.09B. Schenn · Goal · xG 0.08P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.06A. Toropchenko · Missed · xG 0.06B. Schenn · Goal · xG 0.05D. Dvorsky · On goal · xG 0.04P. Buchnevich · Missed · xG 0.04D. Dvorsky · On goal · xG 0.03J. Neighbours · On goal · xG 0.03M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.03C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.02C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.01B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01J. Berggren · Missed · xG 0.01J. Snuggerud · Missed · xG 0.01C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.01J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.01C. Fowler · On goal · xG 0.01C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.01B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.01J. Berggren · On goal · xG 0.01J. Snuggerud · On goal · xG 0.01C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.01N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.00T. Tucker · On goal · xG 0.00
STL3 G · 2.2 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsSTL
2.94 G
All situations
3 G2.2
1.72 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
1.22 G
Power play
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL62%38%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.89 – 2.22

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsSTL
24
Shots on goal
26
52%
Faceoffs
48%
2/3
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
12
Hits
43
20
Blocked shots
16
18
Giveaways
13
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD011+110.06110—27:10
23E. LindellD000000.00020—26:31
55T. HarleyD112020.06130—22:11
96M. RantanenR011010.16110—19:44
21J. RobertsonL022-120.45100—19:29
53W. JohnstonC011+120.260203618:40
5N. LundkvistD000010.01010—18:07
22M. BourqueC000010.271305016:29
24R. HintzC101-130.511007516:07
49J. HryckowianC000+100.020005014:52
18S. SteelC011+150.40100014:10
95M. DucheneC202+130.450025813:32
28A. PetrovicD000-100.01020—12:25
12R. FaksaC000-210.011205011:51
10O. BäckC000-200.00000011:14
14J. BennL000+100.00000—11:04
20K. CapobiancoD000-200.02020—10:25
15C. BlackwellC000-220.234102010:08
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(W)26233.8852.22-0.7859:51

Season series

DAL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).