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Maple Leafs at Red Wings
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Detroit Red Wings
▸3
Final/OTTV FDSNDET, SNO·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-2 in overtime, Simon Edvinsson scoring at 1:46. The Maple Leafs scored first; the Red Wings answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Simon Edvinsson's goal at 1:46 of overtime, which took the Red Wings' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 2.9 to 2.6; shots on goal were TOR 27, DET 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Dennis Hildeby stopped 33 of 36 (.917); Cam Talbot stopped 25 of 27 (.926), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Simon Edvinsson (1 G), 2. Mason Appleton (1 G), 3. Nick Robertson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    S. Edvinsson1 G
  2. ★★
    DET
    M. Appleton1 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    N. Robertson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR08191901227
DETDET0811311213336

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Knies(10)PPG
    A. Matthews (12), J. Tavares (19)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-0
    4:25
  2. DET
    M. Seider(7)
    L. Raymond (31)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +23 ptsVideo
    1-1
    19:01

3rd period

  1. TOR
    N. Robertson(8)
    J. Tavares (20)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +28 ptsVideo
    2-1
    4:53
  2. DET
    M. Appleton(4)
    M. Rasmussen (7), A. Johansson (5)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +28 ptsVideo
    2-2
    5:16

Overtime

  1. DET
    S. Edvinsson(5)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.26win prob +49 ptsVideo
    2-3
    1:46

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·DET 6 PIM

2nd

  • 3:29DETBen Chiarot · Trippingdrawn by Easton Cowan2 min
  • 9:31DETJ.T. Compher · Slashingdrawn by Dakota Joshua2 min

3rd

  • 10:14TORBobby McMann · Holding the stickdrawn by Moritz Seider2 min
  • 10:14DETMoritz Seider · Roughingdrawn by Bobby McMann2 min
  • 10:14TORBobby McMann · Roughingdrawn by Moritz Seider2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTOR goalFinal: DET 100%

Biggest swing: Simon Edvinsson, OT 1:46 — DET 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Edvinsson · Goal · xG 0.26P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.18E. Finnie · On goal · xG 0.18L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.16E. Finnie · On goal · xG 0.13A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.12A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.12A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.09M. Appleton · Goal · xG 0.09A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.09M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.09A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.08L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.08N. Danielson · Missed · xG 0.08P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.08A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.07P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.07M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.05A. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.05L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.05A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.05A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.05D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.04M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.04B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.04A. Sandin-Pellikka · Missed · xG 0.04S. Edvinsson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Leonard · Missed · xG 0.04D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.04M. Kasper · Missed · xG 0.04M. Seider · Goal · xG 0.03A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.03A. Copp · Missed · xG 0.03B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.02L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.02S. Edvinsson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Kasper · Missed · xG 0.02N. Danielson · On goal · xG 0.02B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.02M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.02J. Leonard · Missed · xG 0.01L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.01M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.01A. Sandin-Pellikka · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.01P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.01D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.01A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.01L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.01A. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.00J. Leonard · On goal · xG 0.00M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.00S. Edvinsson · On goal · xG 0.00
DET3 G · 2.9 xG · 55 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsDET
2.62 G
All situations
3 G2.9
1.71 G
Even strength
3 G2.6
0.81 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR44%56%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.51 – 2.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsDET
27
Shots on goal
36
47%
Faceoffs
53%
1/2
Power play
0/1
4
Penalty minutes
6
24
Hits
12
11
Blocked shots
14
11
Giveaways
15
5
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22J. McCabeD000-100.21100—22:48
34A. MatthewsC011-250.470104022:01
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000010.04300—21:49
44M. RiellyD000-210.06010—20:35
8C. TanevD000010.03040—20:10
28T. StecherD000000.01020—19:37
74B. McMannC000-130.11404019:12
11M. DomiC000-110.0200010018:59
91J. TavaresC022+130.411003017:47
23M. KniesL101030.50100—17:28
55N. RoyC000-100.022005615:52
63M. MaccelliL000-110.01000—15:43
51P. MyersD000000.01400—13:59
89N. RobertsonL101030.2301010012:54
81D. JoshuaC000020.19210012:23
18S. LorentzC000010.00400011:24
24S. LaughtonC000000.191105010:44
53E. CowanR000020.06100—09:53
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35D. Hildeby(O)36333.9172.87-0.1361:46

Season series

DET leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).