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Maple Leafs at Red Wings
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
Detroit Red Wings
▸6
FinalTV FDSNDET, SN·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-3. The Red Wings came back from two goals down. The Red Wings led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Max Domi's goal at 2:38 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 22% to 44%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 4.2 to 2.3; shots on goal were TOR 23, DET 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Anthony Stolarz stopped 29 of 33 (.879), 0.7 goals below expected; Cam Talbot stopped 20 of 23 (.870), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Lucas Raymond (2 G), 2. Patrick Kane (1 G, 2 A), 3. Alex DeBrincat (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    L. Raymond2 G
  2. ★★
    DET
    P. Kane1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    DET
    A. DeBrincat3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR280916323
DETDET01331537635

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    C. Jarnkrok(2)
    N. Roy (1), C. Tanev (1)
    wristxG 0.41win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    2:27
  2. TOR
    N. Roy(1)
    M. Rielly (2), W. Nylander (3)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-0
    12:29

2nd period

  1. DET
    M. Kasper(1)
    P. Kane (2), A. DeBrincat (1)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    8:56
  2. DET
    L. Raymond(1)
    D. Larkin (1), E. Finnie (1)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +21 ptsVideo
    2-2
    14:55
  3. DET
    P. Kane(1)
    A. DeBrincat (2), A. Johansson (1)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +22 ptsVideo
    2-3
    18:10

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Domi(1)
    M. Rielly (3)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +23 ptsVideo
    3-3
    2:38
  2. DET
    L. Raymond(2)PPG
    P. Kane (3), A. DeBrincat (3)
    deflectedxG 0.09win prob +22 ptsVideo
    3-4
    6:45
  3. DET
    S. Edvinsson(1)EN
    C. Talbot (1)
    wristxG 0.44win prob +4 ptsVideo
    3-5
    18:12
  4. DET
    A. Copp(1)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.37Video
    3-6
    19:55

Penalties

TOR 10 PIM·DET 6 PIM

1st

  • 16:35TORBrandon Carlo · Trippingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min

3rd

  • 1:02DETAxel Sandin-Pellikka · Interferencedrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 1:42TORAuston Matthews · High stickingdrawn by Ben Chiarot2 min
  • 5:42TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Trippingdrawn by Lucas Raymond2 min
  • 7:21TORMax Domi · Holdingdrawn by Jonatan Berggren2 min
  • 11:54TORBobby McMann · Roughingdrawn by Simon Edvinsson2 min
  • 11:54DETSimon Edvinsson · Roughingdrawn by Bobby McMann2 min
  • 14:56DETJonatan Berggren · Holdingdrawn by Simon Benoit2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTOR goalFinal: DET 100%

Biggest swing: Max Domi, 3rd 2:38 — TOR 22% → 44%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Edvinsson · Goal · xG 0.44A. Copp · Goal · xG 0.37D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.18D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.18P. Kane · Goal · xG 0.16M. Brandsegg-Nygård · Missed · xG 0.16J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.15A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.14A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.14D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.13M. Kasper · Goal · xG 0.13L. Raymond · Goal · xG 0.11E. Finnie · On goal · xG 0.11M. Brandsegg-Nygård · Missed · xG 0.10A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.10L. Raymond · Goal · xG 0.09D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.09A. Sandin-Pellikka · On goal · xG 0.09D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.08P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.08M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.07A. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.07M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.07M. Brandsegg-Nygård · Missed · xG 0.07L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.06J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.06A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.05A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.05A. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.05P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.05P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.05E. Finnie · On goal · xG 0.05A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.05P. Kane · Missed · xG 0.05M. Brandsegg-Nygård · On goal · xG 0.04M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.04M. Kasper · Missed · xG 0.03M. Brandsegg-Nygård · Missed · xG 0.03M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.03D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.03A. Sandin-Pellikka · On goal · xG 0.02A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.02A. Johansson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Brandsegg-Nygård · On goal · xG 0.02J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.02A. Sandin-Pellikka · On goal · xG 0.02S. Edvinsson · On goal · xG 0.02D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.01M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.00
DET6 G · 4.2 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsDET
2.33 G
All situations
4 G4.2
1.83 G
Even strength
3 G2.8
0.50 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR34%66%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.34 – 3.32

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsDET
23
Shots on goal
35
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/2
Power play
1/4
10
Penalty minutes
6
22
Hits
15
16
Blocked shots
14
14
Giveaways
13
2
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD022-120.08110—22:15
34A. MatthewsC000-160.710324621:41
23M. KniesL000030.20210—21:19
88W. NylanderR011-100.0700010021:13
25B. CarloD000000.00102—20:35
91J. TavaresC000-210.110005019:58
22J. McCabeD000+100.00120—19:38
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000-200.00502—19:08
8C. TanevD011+100.00010—17:46
2S. BenoitD000-200.00210—17:00
74B. McMannC000-100.00532016:35
63M. MaccelliL000-100.0011010015:45
11M. DomiC101-130.450125014:53
89N. RobertsonL000-110.09200—13:01
81D. JoshuaC000-220.04210011:22
55N. RoyC112-140.170104010:47
19C. JarnkrokC101010.41000008:20
18S. LorentzC000+100.00000001:17
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41A. Stolarz(L)33294.8793.35-0.6558:24

Season series

DET leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).