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Red Wings at Maple Leafs
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
▸3
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
FinalTV FDSNDET, Prime·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-2. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mason Appleton's goal at 19:15 of the third period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 48% to 98%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.3 to 1.8; shots on goal were DET 15, TOR 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Cam Talbot stopped 38 of 40 (.950), 1.3 goals saved above expected; Anthony Stolarz stopped 12 of 15 (.800), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Cam Talbot (38 saves, .950), 2. Matthew Knies (1 G, 1 A), 3. Mason Appleton (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    C. Talbot38 saves, .950
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Knies1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DET
    M. Appleton1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET160425315
TORTOR013011216240

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    D. Larkin(2)PPG
    A. DeBrincat (4), L. Raymond (1)
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-0
    18:55

3rd period

  1. DET
    J. van Riemsdyk(1)
    A. Copp (1)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    4:25
  2. TOR
    M. Knies(1)
    B. McMann (1)
    tip-inxG 0.19win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    7:29
  3. TOR
    C. Jarnkrok(3)
    A. Matthews (1), M. Knies (2)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +37 ptsVideo
    2-2
    13:42
  4. DET
    M. Appleton(1)
    B. Chiarot (1), E. Finnie (2)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-2
    19:15

Penalties

DET 6 PIM·TOR 10 PIM

1st

  • 16:53TORMorgan Rielly · Cross checkingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min
  • 18:42TORSimon Benoit · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 13:57TORSimon Benoit · Hookingdrawn by Patrick Kane2 min
  • 15:22DETDylan Larkin · Interferencedrawn by Matthew Knies2 min
  • 17:31TORserved by M. Domi · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 10:39DETDylan Larkin · High stickingdrawn by Oliver Ekman-Larsson2 min
  • 14:59DETDylan Larkin · Embellishment2 min
  • 14:59TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · High stickingdrawn by Dylan Larkin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalDET goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Mason Appleton, 3rd 19:15 — DET 48% → 98%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Joshua · On goal · xG 0.44M. Knies · Goal · xG 0.19S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.14B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.14E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.12J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.12C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.11A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.11B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09C. Jarnkrok · Goal · xG 0.09J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.08O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.08B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.07N. Roy · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.06N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.06M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.06M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05E. Cowan · Missed · xG 0.05B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.05W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.03O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.03N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.03A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.02B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.02J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.02M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.02B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.01B. Carlo · Missed · xG 0.01B. Carlo · Missed · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01S. Benoit · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.01M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.01S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.00M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR2 G · 3.3 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsTOR
1.83 G
All situations
2 G3.3
1.12 G
Even strength
2 G2.6
0.71 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET22%78%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.67 – 3.29

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsTOR
15
Shots on goal
40
39%
Faceoffs
61%
1/4
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
10
18
Hits
22
20
Blocked shots
10
16
Giveaways
22
11
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
53M. SeiderD000+210.03110—26:22
44A. Sandin-PellikkaD000-200.04030—22:12
8B. ChiarotD011+200.01230—21:59
37J. CompherL000-200.07000—20:31
77S. EdvinssonD000-200.03020—20:17
71D. LarkinC101+130.481065318:39
93A. DeBrincatR011-140.24020—18:35
88P. KaneR000-110.24010—17:47
92M. KasperC000000.032003816:02
58E. FinnieC011+100.00610015:54
18A. CoppC011010.010102514:58
28M. Brandsegg-NygårdR000-100.00310—13:42
22M. AppletonC101+120.13000013:36
25J. Bernard-DockerD000010.14100—12:17
20A. JohanssonD000010.01110—12:12
27M. RasmussenC000+100.171305011:03
21J. van RiemsdykL101+110.1601010010:09
23L. RaymondL011000.03000—07:58
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39C. Talbot(W)40382.9503.32+1.3259:47

Season series

DET leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).