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Predators at Blues
NHL

Nashville Predators at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
2
St. Louis Blues
▸3
FinalTV FDSNMW, FDSNSO·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Nashville Predators 3-2. The Blues scored first and never trailed. The Blues led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Pavel Buchnevich's goal at 4:40 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 78% to 93%. Expected goals were close — NSH 3.4, STL 3.6; shots on goal were NSH 32, STL 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 17 of 20 (.850); Joel Hofer stopped 30 of 32 (.938), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Pavel Buchnevich (2 G), 2. Joel Hofer (30 saves, .938), 3. Brayden Schenn (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    P. Buchnevich2 G
  2. ★★
    STL
    J. Hofer30 saves, .938
  3. ★★★
    STL
    B. Schenn1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH18010114232
STLSTL280517320

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    B. Schenn(7)PPG
    C. Fowler (13), D. Dvorsky (3)
    tip-inxG 0.22win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-1
    8:45
  2. NSH
    T. Jost(3)
    N. Hague (7)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    11:41
  3. STL
    P. Buchnevich(6)
    R. Thomas (19)
    backhandxG 0.19win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    18:14

3rd period

  1. STL
    P. Buchnevich(7)
    R. Thomas (20), P. Broberg (11)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    4:40
  2. NSH
    F. Svechkov(2)SHG
    E. Haula (15), N. Hague (8)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +11 ptsVideo
    2-3
    12:03

Penalties

NSH 4 PIM·STL 4 PIM

1st

  • 3:16STLBrayden Schenn · Trippingdrawn by Fedor Svechkov2 min
  • 7:18NSHFedor Svechkov · Hookingdrawn by Colton Parayko2 min

2nd

  • 14:54STLLogan Mailloux · Hookingdrawn by Cole Smith2 min

3rd

  • 10:43NSHRyan O'Reilly · High stickingdrawn by Dalibor Dvorsky2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalNSH goalFinal: STL 100%

Biggest swing: Pavel Buchnevich, 3rd 4:40 — STL 78% → 93%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Broberg · Missed · xG 0.42B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.26B. Schenn · Goal · xG 0.22L. Mailloux · Missed · xG 0.21P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.19P. Buchnevich · Goal · xG 0.19O. Stenberg · On goal · xG 0.18J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.17O. Stenberg · Missed · xG 0.17J. Neighbours · Missed · xG 0.15J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.14A. Toropchenko · On goal · xG 0.14A. Toropchenko · On goal · xG 0.12R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.11O. Stenberg · On goal · xG 0.10O. Stenberg · On goal · xG 0.10P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.10J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.09J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.08A. Toropchenko · On goal · xG 0.07P. Buchnevich · Goal · xG 0.07P. Buchnevich · Missed · xG 0.07J. Neighbours · Missed · xG 0.06P. Suter · Missed · xG 0.05J. Neighbours · On goal · xG 0.04P. Broberg · Missed · xG 0.02J. Snuggerud · Missed · xG 0.02L. Mailloux · Missed · xG 0.02J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.02C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.01C. Fowler · On goal · xG 0.01O. Sundqvist · Missed · xG 0.01J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.00J. Berggren · On goal · xG 0.00
STL3 G · 3.6 xG · 34 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsSTL
3.42 G
All situations
3 G3.6
2.41 G
Even strength
2 G3.0
0.90 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.11 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH53%47%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.34 – 3.14

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsSTL
32
Shots on goal
20
38%
Faceoffs
62%
0/2
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
17
Hits
25
3
Blocked shots
19
13
Giveaways
17
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD000-150.19000—23:38
76B. SkjeiD000030.30200—23:16
48N. PerbixD000-110.02000—20:00
77L. EvangelistaR000-130.22010—18:39
37N. BlankenburgD000+110.03000—18:38
9F. ForsbergL000-120.12200—18:30
90R. O'ReillyC000-210.250024518:05
41N. HagueD022+100.00000—17:05
58M. BuntingL000-100.20100—16:40
91S. StamkosC000-110.162002516:00
47M. McCarronC000000.003103515:44
83A. WilsbyD000010.13000—15:42
56E. HaulaL011+130.381006015:15
71M. WoodR000+120.3600010014:55
40F. SvechkovC101+240.280021113:07
36C. SmithR000030.41100—12:13
49R. SchaeferL000010.10310—10:39
17T. JostC101+110.24200010:35
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(L)20173.8503.20+0.2057:52

Season series

NSH leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).