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Predators at Blues
NHL

Nashville Predators at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸5
St. Louis Blues
2
FinalTV FDSNMW, FDSNSO·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the St. Louis Blues 5-2. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Michael Bunting's goal at 1:23 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 47% to 63%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.0 to 2.3; shots on goal were NSH 26, STL 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 20 of 22 (.909); Joel Hofer stopped 21 of 25 (.840), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Filip Forsberg (3 G), 2. Dalibor Dvorsky (2 G), 3. Roman Josi (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg3 G
  2. ★★
    STL
    D. Dvorsky2 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    R. Josi2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH1123816526
STLSTL1606110222

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    F. Forsberg(12)
    R. O'Reilly (15), B. Skjei (9)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    0:27
  2. STL
    D. Dvorsky(4)
    H. McGing (1), J. Faulk (10)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    10:06

2nd period

  1. NSH
    M. Bunting(9)
    N. Perbix (4), E. Haula (13)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.07win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    1:23
  2. NSH
    F. Forsberg(13)PPG
    S. Stamkos (4), R. Josi (11)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-1
    5:31
  3. NSH
    R. Schaefer(3)
    R. Josi (12)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +9 ptsVideo
    4-1
    18:45

3rd period

  1. STL
    D. Dvorsky(5)PPG
    J. Neighbours (7), P. Buchnevich (12)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +3 ptsVideo
    4-2
    8:29
  2. NSH
    F. Forsberg(14)EN
    R. O'Reilly (16)
    wristxG 0.51win prob +1 ptsVideo
    5-2
    16:09

Penalties

NSH 15 PIM·STL 17 PIM

1st

  • 0:57NSHJuuse Saros · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 12:48STLRobby Fabbri · Hookingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
  • 15:07STLBrayden Schenn · Fightingdrawn by Nicolas Hague5 min
  • 15:07NSHNicolas Hague · Fightingdrawn by Brayden Schenn5 min
  • 18:30NSHMichael McCarron · Slashingdrawn by Logan Mailloux2 min
  • 18:30STLLogan Mailloux · Slashingdrawn by Michael McCarron2 min
  • 18:30NSHMichael McCarron · Roughingdrawn by Logan Mailloux2 min
  • 18:30STLLogan Mailloux · Roughingdrawn by Michael McCarron2 min

2nd

  • 1:41STLAlexey Toropchenko · High stickingdrawn by Nick Perbix2 min
  • 4:09STLDalibor Dvorsky · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 11:29STLLogan Mailloux · Holdingdrawn by Matthew Wood2 min

3rd

  • 7:44NSHBrady Skjei · Trippingdrawn by Jake Neighbours2 min
  • 17:12NSHNicolas Hague · Interferencedrawn by Robby Fabbri2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalNSH goalFinal: STL 0%

Biggest swing: Michael Bunting, 2nd 1:23 — NSH 47% → 63%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.29R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.21D. Dvorsky · Goal · xG 0.20M. Joseph · Missed · xG 0.19P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.19H. McGing · On goal · xG 0.18P. Broberg · On goal · xG 0.10P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.10P. Buchnevich · Missed · xG 0.09C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.06P. Suter · Missed · xG 0.06D. Dvorsky · Goal · xG 0.06D. Dvorsky · On goal · xG 0.06C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.05A. Toropchenko · Missed · xG 0.05O. Sundqvist · On goal · xG 0.04B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.04J. Neighbours · Missed · xG 0.03P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.03H. McGing · On goal · xG 0.03T. Tucker · On goal · xG 0.03B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.02L. Mailloux · On goal · xG 0.02T. Tucker · On goal · xG 0.02L. Mailloux · Missed · xG 0.02C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.02O. Sundqvist · Missed · xG 0.01P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.01A. Toropchenko · Missed · xG 0.01D. Dvorsky · Missed · xG 0.01C. Fowler · Missed · xG 0.01L. Mailloux · On goal · xG 0.01M. Luff · On goal · xG 0.01M. Luff · On goal · xG 0.00A. Toropchenko · On goal · xG 0.00
STL2 G · 2.3 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsSTL
3.04 G
All situations
2 G2.3
1.63 G
Even strength
1 G1.5
0.91 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH54%46%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.44 – 2.21

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsSTL
26
Shots on goal
22
65%
Faceoffs
35%
1/4
Power play
1/3
15
Penalty minutes
17
13
Hits
22
7
Blocked shots
11
13
Giveaways
10
6
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD022+220.10100—23:41
76B. SkjeiD011+230.04012—19:44
90R. O'ReillyC022+210.140006118:45
48N. PerbixD011+110.08010—18:25
83A. WilsbyD000+200.00000—18:06
37N. BlankenburgD000010.01010—17:23
56E. HaulaL011+120.210107817:19
41N. HagueD000-100.00117—17:18
81J. MarchessaultR000+110.26100—16:34
9F. ForsbergL303+240.93100—16:20
77L. EvangelistaR000+210.10000—16:03
91S. StamkosC011-130.501005615:53
58M. BuntingL101+130.13200—15:30
71M. WoodR000-110.24200—14:27
47M. McCarronC000010.061247013:41
40F. SvechkovC000010.0200010012:31
49R. SchaeferL101+110.15200—11:51
17T. JostC000+100.00100011:44
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(W)22202.9092.27+0.2760:00

Season series

NSH leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).