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Senators at Canadiens
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Montréal Canadiens

FinalTV TSN2, TSN5·Centre Bell

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Montréal Canadiens 5-2. The Canadiens scored first; the Senators answered. The Senators led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jake Sanderson's goal at 5:48 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 64% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 3.9 to 1.7; shots on goal were OTT 29, MTL 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 83% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 20 of 22 (.909); Samuel Montembeault stopped 24 of 29 (.828), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Sanderson (1 G), 2. Brady Tkachuk (1 G, 1 A), 3. Fabian Zetterlund (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    J. Sanderson1 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    F. Zetterlund1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT21021118529
MTLMTL1611006222

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. MTL
    snapxG 0.15win prob +8 ptsVideo
    0-1
    3:37
  2. OTT
    slapxG 0.05win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    4:01
  3. OTT
    snapxG 0.25win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-1
    16:53

2nd period

  1. OTT
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-1
    5:48
  2. OTT
    snapxG 0.41win prob +11 ptsVideo
    4-1
    6:58
  3. MTL
    N. Suzuki(8)PPG
    snapxG 0.16win prob +8 ptsVideo
    4-2
    8:50

3rd period

  1. OTT
    snapxG 0.14win prob +3 ptsVideo
    5-2
    12:43

Penalties

OTT 10 PIM·MTL 8 PIM

1st

  • 2:55OTTLars Eller · Trippingdrawn by Alexandre Carrier2 min
  • 8:24OTTShane Pinto · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Samuel Montembeault2 min
  • 8:24MTLJayden Struble · Roughingdrawn by Shane Pinto2 min
  • 11:36MTLJake Evans · High stickingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 18:49OTTShane Pinto · Cross checkingdrawn by Lane Hutson2 min

2nd

  • 7:50OTTMichael Amadio · Trippingdrawn by Oliver Kapanen2 min
  • 9:24MTLArber Xhekaj · Roughingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min

3rd

  • 3:15MTLJosh Anderson · Roughingdrawn by Ridly Greig2 min
  • 3:15OTTRidly Greig · Roughingdrawn by Josh Anderson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MTL goalOTT goalFinal: MTL 0%

Biggest swing: Jake Sanderson, 2nd 5:48 — OTT 64% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.18N. Suzuki · Goal · xG 0.16J. Slafkovský · Goal · xG 0.15N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.15O. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.11M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Bolduc · Missed · xG 0.09O. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.08A. Texier · On goal · xG 0.06J. Veleno · Missed · xG 0.06N. Suzuki · Missed · xG 0.05J. Veleno · On goal · xG 0.05M. Matheson · Missed · xG 0.05B. Gallagher · On goal · xG 0.05O. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.05J. Slafkovský · On goal · xG 0.05J. Veleno · Missed · xG 0.04B. Gallagher · Missed · xG 0.03N. Suzuki · On goal · xG 0.03L. Hutson · On goal · xG 0.03O. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.02B. Gallagher · On goal · xG 0.02A. Texier · Missed · xG 0.02A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.02N. Suzuki · On goal · xG 0.01N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.01N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.01L. Hutson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Caufield · On goal · xG 0.01O. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.00I. Demidov · On goal · xG 0.00A. Texier · On goal · xG 0.00
MTL2 G · 1.7 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsMTL
3.95 G
All situations
2 G1.7
3.35 G
Even strength
0 G1.3
0.60 G
Power play
2 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT83%17%MTL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.83 – 1.71

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsMTL
29
Shots on goal
22
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/2
Power play
2/3
10
Penalty minutes
8
21
Hits
33
16
Blocked shots
16
10
Giveaways
14
7
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
85J. SandersonD101+140.19020—24:56
2A. ZubD101+210.25110—24:02
10J. SpenceD022+300.02110—21:01
43T. KlevenD022+300.00020—20:52
18T. StützleC011+320.220102018:55
12S. PintoC000+130.471144518:54
19D. BathersonR101+151.1211010018:45
28C. GirouxR000+100.000003817:02
24D. CozensC000+120.276006016:15
22M. AmadioR011+120.14122—15:32
7B. TkachukL112+330.35200—15:31
20F. ZetterlundL112+320.35100—14:20
71R. GreigC000020.091026014:06
57D. PerronL011+120.43320—13:30
3N. JensenD000+100.00110—13:25
33N. MatinpaloD000000.00010—12:04
89L. EllerC000010.012127810:49
23K. MacDermidL000000.00000—02:58
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark(W)22202.9091.71-0.2959:21

Season series

MTL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).